It was essential to re-establish confidence between the two sides so that relations develop strongly during Trump’s current term. To his credit, PM Modi was successful in achieving a positive outcome.
Introduction
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington DC at the invitation of US President Donald Trump on 12-13 February, 2025. The visit took place within four weeks of the assumption of Office by President Trump in his Second Term. The first few months after the Inauguration of a US President are normally reserved for visits by USA’s close, strategic allies from Europe, NATO and others. The fact that PM Modi was invited to be one of the first few Heads of State/Government to visit Washington DC (he was preceded by the Israeli and Japanese PMs and the King of Jordan) is testimony to the fact that both countries and their leaders attach huge importance to the India-US ties.
India-US relations have been in a sweet spot since the last twenty-five years from the visit of US President Bill Clinton to India in March, 2000. There has been a bipartisan consensus in both countries regarding stronger ties between the two nations.
There was considerable anxiety in most countries at the election of Donald Trump in early November, 2024 as the 47th President of the United States. The reason is that Trump is known to be unpredictable as well as transactional. In his First Term, Trump was seen to be unsure primarily because his election in 2016 came as a shock, not only to the world but also to himself.
Obstacles Trump faced in his First Term are not present today. He won decisively in garnering a majority of the Electoral College votes. He also swept all the seven swing states and registered a convincing win in the popular votes too.
All this imbued Trump with greater confidence to carry through his Agenda to ‘’Make America Great Again’’. He has installed his loyalists to all significant positions in his Cabinet.
Under these circumstances, the world watched Trump’s ascent to authority on 20th January, 2025 with dismay. India however felt more reassured because of the underlying structural factors binding the two countries and the warm relations between PM Modi and President Trump that existed during Trump’s first Term.
This sentiment was evident in conversations between Modi and Trump after the latter’s election and inauguration, especially on 27th January, 2025. Referring to his friendly conversation, PM Modi in his message on X stated that the two countries ‘’are committed to a mutually beneficial and trusted partnership. We will work together for the welfare of our people and towards global peace, prosperity, and security.” This was also the message that EAM Dr S Jaishankar gave while addressing a Press Conference in Washington DC on 22nd January. Jaishankar said that his interactions with the incoming Trump Administration had led him to believe that there was ‘’an agreement, a consensus….that we need to be bolder, we need to be bigger, we need to be more ambitious.’’
It is however pertinent to state that 2025 is not 2017. The world has changed and so also has Trump. Trump in his second tenure is more confident, self-assured, unencumbered and impulsive than he was eight years ago.
Preparing for the Visit
PM Modi’s visit took place under the shadow of several comments by Trump during his election campaign and even after his election, characterising India as the ‘’Tariff King/Major Tariff Abuser.’’ He also threatened to slap reciprocal tariffs on countries which imposed higher custom duties than the US levied on them. India had faced such an onslaught during Trump’s first term also. India took some pre-emptive measures by reducing import duties on several items of export interest to the US like high capacity motor-bikes, super luxury automobiles, EV batteries, bourbon whiskey etc.in its budget on 1st February, 2025, and just before Modi’s meeting with Trump on 13th February, 2025.
The other unsettling factor just before PM Modi embarked on his visit was the unseemly sight of more than 100 Indian illegal migrants transported back to India in a US military aircraft for over 40 hours chained in shackles and handcuffs and without adequate supply of water and food. This infuriated the Indian public as well as the Opposition political class at the humiliation meted out to them.
Preparations for the meeting between PM Modi and President Trump were hit by a third whammy when it was revealed that Trump would be making the announcement to impose reciprocal tariffs just a few hours before the meeting between the two leaders.
PM Modi took the formidable challenges in his stride and delivered an outcome that compelled the CNN to comment that the meeting between Modi and Trump was ‘’a masterclass for other leaders around the world.’’
Relations between India and the US are consequential for India, not only on account of the bilateral partnership in trade, technology, defence and security, but also on account of the geo-political threats from the aggressive rise of China. Similarly, the bilateral relationship is critical for the US considering India’s strengths as a major trade, technology and defence as also a geo-political partner to counter the growing challenge from China.
The Outcomes
Some major takeaways were as follows:
Trade and Tariffs: It was decided to finalize the first tranche of a comprehensive Bilateral Trade Deal by September/October, 2025. This effectively removed the threat of immediate imposition of some penalty tariffs on Indian exports. It was agreed to increase the bilateral trade from the current level of US$190 billion to US$500 billion by 2030. Both the sides will have to work hard to achieve this target. This target was agreed to in the past too but could not be realised. Circumstances appear to be more propitious today to accomplish this objective.
Trump’s threat to impose reciprocal tariffs on all countries could put a spanner in the works. This will need to be watched carefully. It could prove to be counter-productive and unworkable if negotiations on two parallel tracks were to be conducted, one to conclude the first tranche of a multi-sectoral BTA and the second, to deal with increased reciprocal tariffs that Trump has threatened. In any case, the exercise to impose reciprocal tariffs is going to be a complicated one. For instance, if the US were to impose 60-70% tariffs on imports of high capacity motor-cycles from India as India levies similar tariffs on imports of this item from the US, it will have no impact on India’s exports to the US, as India does not export high capacity motor-cycles to that country. Similar would be the scenario with tariffs on many other high value, high tech imports by India from the US.
The best approach by India would be to reduce its trade surplus with the US, which currently stands at a modest US$45 billion, by importing larger quantities of oil and LNG (as it had done during Trump 1.0) as also more sophisticated defence equipment that are urgently required and which it has been doing for the last several years. Diversification of defence supplies from Russia has become even more urgent and critical, because Russia is no longer in a position to meet India’s needs on a timely basis, because of its continuing involvement with the war with Ukraine.
Defence: It was decided to extend the Framework Defence Agreement by another ten years till 2035. It was agreed to import “Javelin” Anti-Tank Guided Missiles, “Stryker” Infantry Combat Vehicles and six additional P-8I Maritime Patrol aircraft to enhance India’s defence capabilities. It was also agreed to co-design and co-produce the sophisticated defence equipment in India. Trump offered the 5th generation stealth fighter F-35 but a final decision will have to be taken by India based on a host of criteria after detailed examination. The leaders also pledged to elevate military cooperation across all domains – air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace – through enhanced training, exercises, and operations, incorporating the latest technologies. They welcomed the forthcoming “Tiger Triumph” tri-service exercise (first inaugurated during Trump’s first Term in 2019) with larger scale and complexity to be hosted in India.
Energy: India already imports oil and LNG from USA worth US$15 billion per annum. This is likely to go up to US$ 25 billion. This will help India meet its energy needs and also to reduce its trade surplus with the US which currently stands at US$46 billion. The two sides will explore possibilities of cooperation in civil nuclear sector including Advanced and Small Modular Reactors. India proposed amendments to its civil nuclear law in the recent Budget.
Extradition of 26/11 accused Tahawwur Rana: Trump announced the extradition of Tahawwur Rana to India, stating that he “will face justice.” This is a huge political and diplomatic victory for India although it is uncertain if Rana would be able to provide any real time information of value, as he has been behind bars for the last 15 years.
The MEGA Partnership for Prosperity: Speaking at the press conference with Trump, Modi noted that while America’s motto is “MAGA,” India’s aspiration of “Viksit Bharat 2047” translates to ‘’Make India Great Again (MIGA)’’. A combination of MAGA and MIGA will result in a ‘’MEGA Partnership for Prosperity’’ of the two countries.
U.S.-India COMPACT (Catalysing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology) for the 21st Century: Trump and Modi launched COMPACT to drive transformative change across key pillars of cooperation. Under this initiative, they committed to a results-driven agenda with initial outcomes this year.
U.S.-India TRUST (“Transforming the Relationship Utilizing Strategic Technology”) Initiative: This will catalyse government-to-government, academia and private sector collaboration to promote application of critical and emerging technologies in areas like defence, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, quantum, biotechnology, energy and space. This is continuation of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology launched during Biden Administration albeit under a different title. A U.S.-India Roadmap on Accelerating AI Infrastructure will be produced by the end of the year. India and the United States will accelerate collaboration in research and development and promote investment across the entire critical mineral value chain, as well as through the Mineral Security Partnership. The leaders announced the launch of INDUS Innovation, a new innovation bridge modelled after the successful INDUS-X platform that will advance U.S.-India industry and academic partnerships and foster investments in space, energy, and other emerging technologies to maintain U.S. and India leadership in innovation and to meet the needs of the 21st century. They also reinforced their commitment to the INDUS-X initiative, which facilities partnerships between U.S. and Indian defense companies, investors and universities to produce critical capability for the militaries of the two countries.
Indo-Pacific and the Quad: Modi and Trump reaffirmed that a close bilateral partnership is central to a free, open, peaceful and prosperous Indo-Pacific. As Quad partners, the leaders reiterated their commitment to international law and good governance; freedom of navigation, overflight and other lawful uses of the seas; and advocacy for peaceful resolution of maritime disputes in accordance with international law. Holding of first meeting of Quad foreign ministers a day after Trump’s inauguration is testimony that the Quad will continue to strengthen in coming years. Pressure on China against its aggressive policies in South and East China Seas and elsewhere is likely to continue unabated. Notwithstanding the initial conflicting signals on China by Trump, China can be expected to remain the principal ‘’strategic competitor’’ for the US.
Counter-terrorism: In addition to the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, the two sides also agreed to jointly fight the global scourge of terrorism and eliminate ‘’terrorist safe havens from every corner of the world.’’ They committed to strengthen cooperation against terrorist threats from groups, including Al-Qa’ida, ISIS, Jaish-e Mohammad, and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba. The leaders called on Pakistan to expeditiously bring to justice the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai, and Pathankot attacks and ensure that its territory is not used to carry out cross-border terrorist attacks.
In addition to the above mentioned major decisions, some other crucial results of PM Modi’s visit were as follows:
China: Since his election, Trump has been sending mixed signals regarding China. These relate to imposition of 10% tariffs on goods imported from China as against earlier the threat of 60% on Chinese imports, invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration, turnaround on TikTok, his warm conversation with Xi Jinping to ‘’do everything possible to make the world more peaceful and safe!” This indicates Trump’s desire to have a positive relationship with China.
To strengthen his negotiating leverage, Trump has imposed a much smaller tariff than he had earlier warned. This could provide greater space for Indian products in the US market. Trump’s pushback could also result in foreign investments locating to other destinations. India should be ready to not miss out on China +1 Investment opportunity this time.
Even if US gets a satisfactory Trade Deal with China, its relations are likely to be adversarial because China’s end objective is to displace US as the hegemon of the world. China will not take its eyes off this goal, irrespective of what short-term, tactical arrangements it enters into with the US.
India would need to closely watch the evolving ties between USA and China, and while further expanding its relations with the US, work towards non-confrontational, stable relations with China.
Bangladesh: In response to a query during his press interaction with the media on 13th February, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said that PM Modi shared his views and concerns with regard to recent developments in Bangladesh. India hoped that the situation in Bangladesh will move forward in a direction where India could pursue relations in a constructive and stable way with them. But India harboured concerns about the prevailing situation in the country. In the joint interaction of Trump and Modi with the media, the former in response to a query on the situation in Bangladesh said: ‘’This is something that the Prime Minister has been working on for a long time…. I will leave Bangladesh to the Prime Minister.” This is clear indication that the US under Trump will not interfere in Bangladesh. There were strong rumours and speculation that the US Deep State was actively engaged in orchestrating the Bangladesh coup which deposed PM Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 and brought Muhammad Yunus to power.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: From the Press interaction between the two leaders it became clear that both Modi and Trump are on the same page to get the war stopped at the earliest. PM Modi said that soon after the war started he had told Putin in front of the press and TV cameras that this is not an era of war and that no disputes can ever be resolved on the battle field. Dialogue and diplomacy was the only way forward. PM Modi expressed his strong support for Trump’s initiative to end the war as soon as possible.
Expanding strategic convergences on regional and global issues: this became evident in the bilateral parleys. India will host the Quad Summit later in the year. The Joint Statement confirms that President Trump will participate in it. Both leaders expressed their commitment to enhance cooperation with partners in West Asia as well as in the Indian Ocean region. They agreed to convene partners under the IMEC initiative as well as the I2U2 construct within the next six months to announce new initiatives. They also launched the Indian Ocean Strategic Venture, a new bilateral forum to advance coordinated investments in connectivity and commerce in this region.
Promoting Understanding and Personal Rapport: The two leaders took off in their personal relations from where they had left in 2020. There were some doubts whether under the changed geo-political circumstances they would be able to recreate the same chemistry that had permeated their personal ties in Trump’s first Term. All such doubts and misapprehensions were laid to rest by the end of PM Modi’s short 30-hour visit to Washington DC. The strong personal comfort level between the two leaders got further strengthened and deepened by the growing convergence of interests, both bilateral as well as geo-political, between the two countries.
Conclusion: Although the visit was short, it was highly productive and substantive. The entire gamut of the relationship ranging from strategic and security cooperation, defence, trade and economic engagement, technology, energy security and people-to-people linkages, as well as regional and global issues of concern were dealt with and convergences established.
As explained above, PM Modi’s visit to the US took place under extremely difficult and highly volatile circumstances. It was essential to re-establish confidence between the two sides so that relations develop strongly during Trump’s current term. To his credit, PM Modi was successful in achieving a positive outcome.
Convergence on bilateral, regional and global issues is much greater than divergences on some aspects. India demonstrated its commitment to have intense negotiations on trade, tariffs, immigration, defence procurement and other matters to arrive at mutually beneficial win-win solutions.
India-US relations are poised to advance rapidly in the foreseeable future, and be a force for bilateral and global peace, security and prosperity. The visit by PM Modi helped to skilfully navigate the bilateral ties to touch fresh heights of cooperation and partnership in the coming years.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar is Executive Council Member, Mahohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses; President, Institute of Global Studies; Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassdor of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia.
