Act where we Must, Pause where we Must.
So much has been around us, Operation Sindoor and its aftermath, in this last month. So much has happened, on the ground, in the air, so much shifting in the global sands, it is best to capture these developments as moments in time. As we put together some of our learnings from the events that led to operation Sindoor and its fallout, a few questions emerge that need a more sedate and reasoned consideration.
- Were we isolated on the world stage? Is that true? Or, perhaps what is truer is that this was the first manifestation of a multipolar foreign policy where all are our friends, we have direct relationships with each of them, and that they did not feel the situation was grave enough yet to warrant them to take a call? Yes, we don’t belong to any camp; whereas, unlike us, there is Pakistan who is in committed relationships in camps, with committed friends who stood by them, even supplying arms, openly and brazenly. Regarding the stand taken by USA, which we deal separately.
- Does our foreign policy require a recalibration? Only the wiser counsels should prevail?
- In this multipolar world, each country is left to itself. There is no rule-based order left. Multi-lateral agencies such as UNWTO and WHO are getting increasingly overlooked, or being left alone by the US, ironically to be influenced by China. There is no uniformity on what rules-based order, countries around the world, will espouse. You work out your own deals, you arrive at your own conclusions. Is this the emerging world order?
- So, too, terrorism is also something left to each country to fend for. And, if India is going to continue to face such terror attacks from across the border or inspired by across the border as we have been facing, we will have to find our own solutions, both immediate and long term. And, that so long as terror does not hit you directly, let it be of less concern, that is the message that we saw across the global screens.
- You can also ask if memory around the world is so short? Every other day, across global centres, we hear of somebody or the other driving into, ramming into, crowds, killing or injuring innocent people. They deem it convenient to not call them acts of terror.
- Should Operation Sindoor be an ongoing mission, and for how long are we going to say that we are in combat mode 24/7? If it means we are going to be on high alert for more such attacks, indeed, we must be.
- At the same time, would being in perpetual state of war be counter-productive, would this take away our focus from the development narrative? And is this also what suits our detractors best?
- India and Pakistan are never on the same page. Doubt, if we ever will. They have sold their soul. We want to carry our head high. We are on growth trajectory, they are not. They live on dole, we earn our daily bread. Also, Pakistan is not what it was 30 years ago. Today, it enjoys the patronage of some powerful neighbours, namely China, serving their strategic interests. They get free hardware and software, the best China can put out on trial, the two are in tandem. This changes our equation with Pakistan. But will China, when it says they do not want war, prevail over Pakistan to stop their covert operations in Kashmir?
- Turkey is another support for Pakistan, has been for some time. Between China and Turkey, has the writing been on the wall for some time? We remained in hope, or in a state of denial? But we did reach out to both, on separate occasions, as and when called for. We extended an olive arm, so it was not for lack of effort or good intentions.
- Operation Sindoor provided a big learning curve on our defence preparedness. Our self-reliance is successful on many fronts, not on all. We need to buck up our Made in India mission, and yet we do not have the luxury of time, on our side. We need solutions, all win-win for immediate, midterm and long-term. It is best left for those in the defence establishment to undertake what is best for our defence.
- The new elephant in the room in South Asia is China. China was not considered a South Asian player, till now, but with its recent intervention in Pakistan, it has brought China upfront. Which similar interventions in Bangladesh and its dubious intentions (now exposed) in Sri Lanka and Maldives, they are all around us now more than ever before. How will this game play out when countries like Sri Lanka and Maldives are already beginning to feel the impact of huge debts and will have to forfeit, maybe their assets to the Chinese. A similar game is playing out in Nepal, for instance, with the airport at Pokhara.
- So, China has all the muscle, both monetarily and militarily, but has proved time and again, not just around South Asia, but also globally, that its intentions are to eventually create debt traps, seize assets and territories when the defaults occur. As the dust settles, being a reliable friend, may become the need of the hour among developing countries that also value their sovereignty. As the dust settles, again, would a winner be somebody who believes in rules based global order? It is here that India must score, starting within our South Asian region that we are a country that truly cares. That we have no ulterior motives, except to live in peaceful co-existence, based upon mutual respect.
- As we look for support globally against terror, we have done well to look for support from within the country. Therefore, the government has done well to send teams from across all political parties to a number of countries globally, all speaking against terror. This support is not as much as to the Prime Minister Modi or to BJP, but this support is to India in its fight against error. The Congress and other political parties would do well to look upon this participation of their members in these teams only as a support, a unified national support against terror. We have begun well to start from home!
- The big disappointment for all Indians must have been the recent re-hyphenation of India and Pakistan, starting from none other than the US. But is Donald Trump all of America? Is this the America that we were building bridges with, in the last many years, years that signalled a new era of friendship between them and us? Perhaps not. This is not the same US, and we might do well to pause and let time go by, a bit, as Trump plays out his second innings. There is already a backlash, a push back beginning, starting with the exit of Elon Musk, who is said to have spent more than USD 250 million on Trump. Some of his decisions are already being questioned by the judiciary, by the universities, it is not going to be that easy going as he has visualised. After all, the most powerful man on earth, may also discover he has limitations.
