A Dam in Tibet has the Potential to Unleash Unequal Water Wars

The Water Perspective

Recently numerous articles have been published, regarding China’s plan to construct a hydropower project on the YarlungTsangpo river that will be the world’s biggest hydropower dam. The announcement came on 25th December 2024; however, it was known for a decade or so, because this dam is likely to be the main water source for the South-North water diversion project of China. China’s northern areas are parched and need water, for which China has planned to divert the waters of the Tibetan rivers to the north through a network of channels, tunnels, drains, and canals. Therefore, do not believe China even for a moment when they say that the Dam in question is a Run-of the-River project and there will be no impact on India and Bangladesh. The very location chosen is such, that the water reservoir is going to be larger than anywhere else in the world. Alarm bells should ring in every department of the Government of India, and this move by China should be declared an emergency for the 60 million people who are dependent of these waters, especially during the lean months.

From June to September, the southwest monsoon sweeps across India, drenching the country with rain. During this period, India receives 70%-90% of its annual rainfall. This rain water causes floods, destruction and death and then drains out into the ocean. Across India ground water is receding, and rivers are severely polluted. 80 percent of the waters of the Western Rivers have already been lost to Pakistan, through the Indus Water Treaty. The way things stand, we are disregarding the value of water by not giving due importance to conservation, preservation, and storage. Another 50 years from now, as we move more and more into global warming, religion and power will take a back seat, and water is likely to become the primary reason for war.

75 years ago, China foresaw the water crisis coming. This could well have been one of the reasons for them to annex Tibet, because that is where all the water was. China sees itself as the controller of South Asia’s mightiest rivers. It is estimated that 718 billion cubic meters (BCM) of surface water flows out of the Tibetan plateau annually.

Tibet

Tibet is South Asia’s rainmaker, water supplier, and water repository. It is from here that water flows in all directions and into many countries. The Tibetan Plateau has the largest perennial ice mass on the planet after the Arctic and Antarctica. Stretching 2,400 Km from east to west, and 1,450 Km from north to south, this unique water bank is located on the world’s largest and highest plateau, with the average elevation of 4,000 meters above sea level, aptly called “the Roof of the World.” There are more than 18,000 high-altitude glaciers and 1500 lakes in the Great Himalayas, which serve as massive storehouses of freshwater.

The main rivers flowing out of the Tibetan Plateau include the Yangtze, Yellow, Mekong, Salween, Irrawaddy, Arun, Brahmaputra, Sutlej, and the Indus. Ganga’s main tributaries also flow in from the Tibet, including Karnali, Gandak, and Kosi.

When China annexed Tibet, little of the river waters were being consumed on the plateau itself. This meant that nearly all the water was transferred to downstream basins including India, Nepal, China, East and West Pakistan, Bhutan, Vietnam, Burma, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand. Now, with the river waters increasingly being diverted for other economic activities on the plateau and with China pursuing inter-river and inter-basin transfer projects, the transboundary implications of China’s hold over Tibet’s waters are becoming worrisome.

Control over Water

China is the greatest dam builder in the world. Over the last 7-8 decades, China has constructed more than 87,000 dams. Mao Zedong approved and supported the idea of large-scale damming of rivers. President Hu Jintao, graduated as an engineer with a major in hydropower. In 1964, he served as Tibet’s martial-law administrator. He thus fused two key elements, Water and Tibet.  Premier Wen Jiabao, a geological engineer, had also done geological work in the Tibetan Plateau. He too focused on Tibet’s water. China considers water a sovereign resource rather than a shared resource. China does not share data about water flow and hydropower operations with lower riparian states. Chinese maintains: Not one drop of China’s water should be shared without China using it first or without making those downstream pay for it.

China has dammed every major river on the Tibetan Plateau, Mekong, Salween, YarlungTsangpo, Yangtze, Yellow, Indus, Sutlej, Shweli and Karnali. There are indications that these dams have reservoirs to export electric energy to mainland China.

These projects are located very close to the geological fault line where the Indian Plate collides with the Eurasian Plate. An adverse natural calamity causing major damage to Tibet’s dams could lead to floods downstream. China has never officially communicated about the construction of these dams. A lack of transparency about dam building on the Tibetan Rivers raises questions about the risk and impact on river systems that support millions.

The Indian Context

In the Indian context, there are two main river systems that draw their waters from Tibet, the Indus River System, and the Brahmaputra River System.

The Indus River originates from Mt. Kailash/Lake Mapam, enters India through Ladakh and flows into POK. The Sutlej River, which is the longest tributary of the Indus River System, also originates at Mt. Kailash/Lake Mansarovar. The Sutlej enters India through the state of Himachal Pradesh.

The YarlungTsangpo (Brahmaputra) also originates from Mount Kailash. It flows eastward in Tibet at an average altitude of more than 4,000 meters for over 1650 Km. Among the world’s major streams, this is the highest river and one of the fastest flowing. It ranks as the fourth-largest river in the world by discharge. The Brahmaputra is by far the most important river flowing from China into any other country in terms of sheer volume. The average annual trans­boundary flows into India of the Brahmaputra is 165.4 billion cubic meters (BCM) which is greater than the combined cross-border flows of Mekong and Salween. The Brahmaputra enters India at Korbo on the McMahon Line as the Siang River in Arunachal Pradesh.

The Siang/Dihang flows about 400 kilometers through a picturesque canyon before it meets with the Dibang river and the Lohit River in the plains of Assam at Kobo, south of Sadiya town. It is from this point, which is the confluence of three rivers, that the river assumes the name Brahmaputra. The river traverses another 650 Km before entering Bangladesh.

The Mega Dam

On 25 December 2024, China’s state-run Xinhua news agency reported about the plan of the construction of a hydropower project on the YarlungTsangpo river what will be the world’s biggest hydropower dam on the eastern rim of the ecologically fragile Tibetan plateau. After flowing due east from its origin in Kailash Mansarovar, the YarlungTsangpo takes an abrupt south turn towards India cutting through a very narrow and deep gorge between Namcha Barwa Peak (altitude 25445 ft) and Gyala Pheri Peak (altitude 23460 ft). Here the river forms the steepest and longest canyon in the world. China plans to dam the river near the Great Bend in Pemako area. The Great Bend was chosen because of the steep descent of the YarlungTsangpo, a crucial factor for a hydro-electric dam. It will be the largest dam in human history. China claims that the dam project is merely a run-of the-river hydro-power project, but in all likelihood, it is actually a part of the South-North water diversion project. This super hydropower station will be constructed in Medog, on the Great Bend, 30 km from the Indian border. The dam will generate 38 gigawatts of power, or more than twice the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam. Another report states it as a 60-gigawatt project that will produce electricity three times the capacity of the world’s present largest hydroelectric facility, the Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River in central China.

Effect on India

A gigantic hydropower project will undoubtedly have effect on the quantity of water flow in the Brahmaputra, especially if it can be controlled. It is also a fact that the Siang is not the only water supplier to the Assam plains, the Brahmaputra receives most of its water supply from massive rains in the catchment areas of its tributaries, mainly from Lohit and Subansari rivers. However, the average is calculated by including the monsoon flows. What happens in the lean season? Fluvial eco-systems depend on perennial water sources. The major perennial source of water is the Siang, and if there is no water flow in the Siang, are we looking at an ecological disaster.

Similar to the situation painted above but on a larger scale, is that, any untimely release of Brahmaputra waters by China, could unleash havoc in Assam. This is especially so because the Brahmaputra is a wide river, not a deep river. More the water the wider it will become. The Brahmaputra’s channel is the widest water channel in India, extending more than 10 Km at certain places. Geographically, Arunachal Pradesh rests on the Brahmaputra towards the South. One can cross over from Assam to Arunachal Pradesh only over existing bridges. What if sudden release of water increases the Brahmaputra water channel to 15-20 Km. Such an eventuality would be disastrous for India.

There is no doubt that the project is also dangerous from an environmental point of view. Deforestation will lead to rapid soil erosion and landslides. The Brahmaputra, gathers extremely rich silt, which provides essential nutrients for the soil and farming downstream. High silt loads are essential to maintain the agricultural soil fertility and marine life downstream. It is the quality and not only the quantity that is in question.

However, the concern is not only for damming of rivers, it is also for water diversions, part of the South-North Diversion Project. Will India be greatly deprived of water in case the waters of Tibet are diverted?

The Himalayan region is earthquake prone. Earthquakes have been striking Tibet with increasing frequency. Other dams apart, a 60-gigawatt dam at the Great Bend will be huge. If an earthquake strikes and waters of the dam are released, it is obvious who will bear the brunt.

Let me put this in a comparative perspective.

Top Three Indian Dams Producing Hydroelectric Power

  • Tehri Hydropower Complex – 2,400 Megawatts. The dam located in Uttarakhand, is a multi-purpose rock and earth-filled embankment dam, and at 260.5 metres is the tallest in India.
  • Koyna Hydroelectric Project – 1,960 Megawatts. The dam is located in the Western Ghats, all the generators of the power plant have been installed deep inside the mountains.
  • Srisailam Dam – 1,670 Megawatts. The length of the dam is 512 metres and the height is 145 metres. It is located on the Krishna River in the Nallamala Hills in Andhra Pradesh.

Top Three Indian Dams in terms of Reservoir Storage Capacity

  • Indira Sagar Dam in Madhya Pradesh with capacity of 12.22 BCM.
  • Nagarjuna Sagar Dam in Telangana with capacity of 11.472 BCM.
  • Bhakra Nangal Dam reservoir known as “Gobind Sagar” stores up to 9.34 BCM of water.

Chinese Dams

The dimensions of the Three Gorges Dam are 2,335 metres (7,660 feet) long and 185 metres (607 feet) high and 115 meters wide. It produces 22500 Megawatts of power (22.5 Gigawatts). The reservoir capacity is 39.3 BCM. Making it the largest dam ever built.

The geographical realities of the location of the proposed Mega Dam at the Great Bend are difficult to even imagine. With the walls of the gorge at 5000 meters and above, imagine the amount of water that can get harnessed in the reservoir of the dam. Taking the Three Gorges Dam as a reference point, that produces 22.5 Gigawatts power and has a reservoir of 39.3 BCM, what will be the dimensions and reservoir storage capacity of a dam that is slated to produce 60 Gigawatts of power? As a rough calculation, it would be more than the Three Gorges Dam. In terms of volume, such a large quantity of captive water if released, could create more devastation than any known weapon system in the world. In addition to volume, also do try to consider the weight of the water, when only one 1 cubic meter of water weighs 1000 kg.

Examples of Deliberate Flooding

  • At 1.30 am on 1 August 2000, a 50-ft high wall of water tore from Pari Chu into Sutlej River from Khab on the border of Himachal Pradesh & Tibet. The mountain gorges of Kinnaur, Shimla and Mandi districts in Himachal Pradesh washed away everything that came in its path. By 05.15 am, the water reached NathpaJhakri Project. Within a short time, the level of river Sutlej rose by 15 metres. More than 100 persons lost their lives, 120 km of the strategic old India-Tibet Highway was washed away and 98 bridges of various sizes and shapes were destroyed.
  • Again in 2004, a lake began to form in the Pari Chu, threatening to cause floods in India’s Sutlej valley. While China remained cooperative and shared upstream data with India this time, there was speculation that China deliberately created a ‘liquid bomb,’ an artificial lake, to be unleashed at will to potentially devastate downstream areas. This possibility got credence as China rejected a request by India to send scientists and engineers to the site.
  • The Brahmaputra, on 1 March 2012, ran completely dry at a place called Pasighat in Arunachal Pradesh. This was unprecedented. After a few hours, the Brahmaputra began filling up with high columns of onrushing water which inundated Pasighat town. This incidence raises the possibility of blocking of water at upper reaches first and its sudden release thereafter.
  • In another case, on 11 June 2004 the Siang River rose by an unprecedented 100-120 ft and devastated four districts of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. More than 26 persons lost their lives while three strategic bridges were swept away by the raging river waters. The official estimate of the loss was around Rs 140 crore.
  • The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) had credible evidence that China caused these flash floods. Satellite images showed massive water bodies or lakes upstream in Sutlej and Siang River basins before the flash floods took place. These lakes disappeared soon after the disaster struck Indian territory.
  • In 2017, the Siang River turned muddy and blackened. With up to ten inches of sediment accumulated on some stretches of the riverbed, the water became unfit for human consumption.

These sudden releases of water were in all likelihood intentional, and not an act of God. India is a downstream country and thus vulnerable to an upper riparian tinkering with dam waters. Such releases of water in a war like situation could have major military implications. Since China has effectively dammed every river that flows into India, it can use water as a weapon of war, by controlling releases as part of a military strategy. This water narrative sows the seed of distrust among neighbours.

Conclusion

Starting early 1990s China constructed 11 massive dams on the Mekong River. They assured that there will be no harm to the lower riparian countries.  However, the result was disastrous, as the flows were diverted, greatly affecting the agricultural yields, forests, fishing, and the daily livelihood of people in downstream Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

How much did/does China care? Who will control the flows of the mighty Brahmaputra? Will Brahmaputra remain mighty anymore? Will China be able to stop/release or divert part of its flow? Will China be able to store the waters in the dry season and release them in the wet months. Will not India and Bangladesh be adversely affected?

Water, too much or too little, can create crisis situations. If employed as part of a military strategy it can have unimaginable repercussions. It is a huge bomb sans gunpowder. Therefore, it is time to wake up and smell the coffee.

I wish to place on record my special thanks to Professor Brahma Chellaney under whose inspiration and guidance I began research on the subject over a decade ago. Views expressed in the article are of the author alone.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Major General VK Singh, VSM (Retd) was commissioned into The Scinde Horse in December 1983. An alumnus of St Columba’s School, and St Stephens College, the General is a fourth-generation army officer.

 

 


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