Curtains came down on more than a yearlong intense campaigning in the US Presidential election at the end of voting hours in Alaska, the western most state of the US, on 5th November, 2024. The contest was expected to have a nail-biting finish. It did not. It was thought that the final result might elude us for days and weeks if not months. It did not.
In fact, the direction of the final result became quite obvious a few hours after the counting commenced. Donald Trump registered a decisive and emphatic victory, even if it was not a landslide triumph.
He became the first US President after more than a century to win a non-consecutive term.
He also became the first Republican President after 2004 and only the second since 1988 to win more popular votes in the election than his adversary. He was able to achieve this by significantly enhancing his appeal to the electorate across the board. In addition to the white males without college degrees, who were the mainstay of his committed support base, Trump weaned away many voters from different demographics including the Latinos, the Blacks, and the Asian Americans including the Indian Americans, who had predominantly voted for Joe Biden in 2020.
With this added support, he amassed more than 74 million votes with a total of 312 electoral votes. As against these numbers, his opponent, the Democrat Kamala Harris was able to muster only 71 million votes with 226 electoral votes. What was particularly remarkable was that Trump romped home with a convincing win in all the seven battleground States with 93 electoral votes. In 2020, he had won only one out of these seven States viz. North Carolina with 16 electoral votes.
It is evident that notwithstanding the yarn spun by the mainstream media of a close contest with a razor thin margin for either of the contestants, the issues raised by Trump of a declining economy, imperative need to stop inflow of illegal immigration, futility of US participation in conflicts around the world etc. resonated with the ordinary Americans.
On the contrary, the issues raised by Kamala Harris of abortion and pro-choice versus pro-life, saving democracy, several ongoing cases against Trump etc. were not enough to tilt the balance in her favour. Not only was Trump able to enhance his appeal in the red and swing states, but he got a higher proportion of votes even from blue states like California, New York and other North-Eastern States than he did in 2020.
In the historic election which has brought Trump once again to the White House, he has also managed to snatch the Senate from the Democrats and to continue the control of the Republicans over the House of Representatives. With the Supreme Court packed 6-3 with the Conservative judges, 3 of whom were appointed by Trump in his earlier tenure, there will be very few checks and balances to stop Trump from doing what he wants to do. In any case, voting on ideological lines, the Supreme Court by a majority of 6-3 declared recently that the President enjoyed immunity and could not be charged for any actions undertaken in pursuit of his official functions.
Today, the Republican Party and its policies don’t define Trump. Trump’s own ideology and thinking on security, politics, economy etc. define the Republican Party and with the Trifecta control of the government (executive, legislature and judiciary), Trump can move unencumbered in whichever direction he chooses.
The US election, like most national elections in large countries, was fought on domestic issues and not on foreign policy themes. The outcome will however have far reaching consequences for the world at large.
There has been considerable anxiety and nervousness in several regions and capitals of the world about the impact that Trump’s victory would have on those countries and regions. India is not one of them.
India has welcomed the US election results with quiet relief and some satisfaction. This is not to suggest that India-US relations did not progress significantly during the Biden term. On the contrary, many new initiatives were taken to notably advance the bilateral strategic partnership, substantially and fundamentally. Several far-reaching initiatives like the iCET (Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies), elevation of the Quad to Summit level, decision to export technology of GE 414 aircraft engines to India, promotion of manufacture of semiconductor chips in India, US support for India’s G20 Presidency, and many more, were taken over the last four years. It was during Biden’s tenure that PM Modi was invited as a State Guest to the White House and also to Address the Joint Session of the US Congress for the second time, an honor that has been accorded to only a handful of world leaders.
A significant element that gives confidence to the Indian policy makers regarding Trump 2.0 is the close understanding and personal rapport between PM Modi and President Trump. This was starkly evident in the first term of Trump particularly in mega rallies like the ‘’Howdy Modi’’ in Houston, Texas in September, 2019, and ‘’Namaste Trump’’ in Ahmedabad, India in February, 2020. This has also been visible in the first telephone conversation between the two leaders and the two tweets by PM Modi welcoming the re-election of President Trump. It can be argued that personal equations don’t have an appreciable role in determining relations between two countries which are principally guided by national interests. I would however argue that positive chemistry between two leaders enhances understanding and trust between them which positively contributes to resolution of seemingly intractable or difficult issues between the two countries.
Notwithstanding Trump’s unpredictable, capricious and transactional behavior, India enjoyed warm and cooperative relations with him in his first Term and registered many new advances in bilateral partnership. Some of these include:
- the revival of the Quad in 2017 after a hiatus of 10 years,
- launch of the 2+2 platform of discussions including the foreign and defense ministers of the two countries,
- accession by India to all the foundational defense agreements, strategic convergence between the two countries on cooperation against the increasingly aggressive policies of China, and cross-border terrorism emanating from Pakistan,
- inclusion of India in the Strategic Trade Authorization–1 (STA-1) category which would permit supply of sophisticated defense weaponry and platforms to India without the necessity to go through long-winded approval procedures, and many more.
India will expect to build on the successes of Trump’s first Term and advance the partnership from where it has reached under Biden’s stewardship. In his first tweet ‘’congratulating ‘friend’ Donald Trump on his historic election victory’’ PM Modi said: ‘’As you build on the successes of your previous term, I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership. Together, let’s work for the betterment of our people and to promote global peace, stability and prosperity.’’
We can expect that Trump’s focus on the Indo-Pacific and the Quad will continue. He will take forward the issue from the higher level of engagement that Biden has brought it to. Notwithstanding Trump’s propensity to junk any initiative taken by his predecessor, as he did with several of Obama’s policies when he came to Office in 2017, the Quad and Indo-Pacific bear his own imprint. To reclaim it, he could introduce a somewhat different branding but substantively, he can be expected to vigorously pursue the theme of a free and open Indo-Pacific and a rule based international order.
His pushback against China in the maritime domain, trade issues and the strategic field can be expected to continue. Most of the major cabinet appointments announced by Trump so far including NSA Mike Waltz, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary Defence Pete Hasgeth, CIA Director John Ratcliffe etc. are pronounced China hawks and will keep the pressure up on China in trade and strategic matters. China will have to be ready to deal with a situation that will be marked by greater confrontation and decoupling. This will further bolster the convergence between India and the US. India is scheduled to host the next Quad Summit in 2025 in India. That will be another useful opportunity for India to impart greater energy to the bilateral partnership.
The subject of terrorism, particularly that emanating from Pakistan, is likely to receive a stern response. No reason exists today for Trump to make a special outreach to Pakistan, as existed in 2019/2020 when he wanted the help of Pakistan to connect with the Taliban leadership based in Doha to reach an understanding on the pull-out of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. His proposed cabinet announcements of NSA Mike Waltz, DNI (Director of National Intelligence) Tulsi Gabbard and other anti-terrorism protagonists would be giving nightmares to Pakistan generals and political leaders.
Trump himself had spoken out forcefully just before the elections about the oppressive treatment being meted out to Hindus and other minorities in Bangladesh. His proposed DNI Tulsi Gabbard has also been very vocal against violation of human and minority rights in Bangladesh. Trump 2.0 could witness some focussed attention on this unstable and volatile neighbour of India.
Trade was an issue that created considerable disquiet in India during Trump 1.0. It is likely that in keeping with his America First and MAGA doctrines as also his branding of India as a ‘’Tariff King’’ and ‘’Worst Abuser of Tariffs,’’ he might impose some penalty tariffs on India, as he did last time. It will be important to negotiate hard with his team to safeguard our interests and maintain access to the US market. If Robert Lighthizer is again appointed as the USTR, as is reported, or Treasury Secretary, it could complicate matters. But Indian economy today is much bigger than what it was in Trump 1.0. Our capacity to deal effectively on trade issues with the US has also increased. We will however need to preserve our core interests in the area of agriculture, dairy etc.
It can be reasonably expected that the ‘’woke’’ pressure on India on alleged backsliding of democracy, oppression of minorities particularly Muslims and Christians, human rights violations etc. would stop or would be significantly tempered.
Donald Trump and the World Stage
NATO countries are apprehensive of the attitude that Trump might adopt regarding continued support to security of Europe. His threat to withdraw from NATO during his first term and also terming it as ‘’brain dead’’ does not inspire confidence among member states about Trump’s solid support for NATO’s role as security provider of Europe. It can however be reasonably expected that Trump will not take a drastic step to abandon NATO but instead, insist that the member states meet the requirement of spending 2% or more of their GDP to bolster their defences. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 23 NATO member-states including Poland, Germany, UK etc. are already spending more than the minimum threshold. There will be an insistence on all others including the alliance partners in East Asia viz. Japan, ROK, Australia to also attain this minimum threshold.
Trump has promised to stop the wars. It is inconceivable how he will be able to do so. In addition to a preponderant majority of Democrats, there appear to be a significant number of Republicans who want to continue the military support to Ukraine. He could ask for a halt in the kinetic military operations in Ukraine, as the conflict appears to have ground to a stalemate over several weeks, if not months. The Europeans have also been actively mulling over how to Trump-proof their security and defence strategy.
In the context of the Middle East, it can be expected that Trump’s overt support for Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu will increase. He will also try to re-invigorate the continuation and expansion of the Abraham Accords launched by him in 2020. He will attempt to get Israel and Saudi Arabia on the same page. This is easier said than done. However, the lure of a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon could prove to be an attractive carrot for Saudi Arabia to make a decisive move towards Israel. Pressure on Iran is likely to increase but will fall short of expansion and escalation of the conflict to an all-out regional war.
Trump had walked out of the Paris Climate Accord when he assumed power in 2017. He has threatened to do so this time also. If he carries out his threat, it will be a huge blow to the rather tentative and hesitant moves being made to deal with the existential threat of Climate Change. Trump has promised to overhaul U.S. energy policy, with the aim of maximizing the country’s already record-high oil and gas production by rolling back regulations and speeding up granting approvals.
China would be feeling very nervous and anxious today. This is particularly so because its economy has not been in good shape for some time and is suffering from many challenges including inadequate domestic consumption, demographic downturn, decline in real estate, hi-tech and education sectors etc. That’s why it recently suggested that China and India should work together to deal with the post-Trump world. Trump has threatened China with imposition of 60% tariffs on all goods coming into the US from China. It is understood that China has been trying to Trump-proof its economy against any actions that Trump might decide to take. There is a precedence for this. In his last term, Trump had levied penalty tariffs on about US$300 billion imports from China. China had retaliated by levying tariffs on about US$100 billion of imports from the US. The fallout of this tariff war, something like which could break out this time also if Trump were to follow up on his threats, was that China signed an Agreement with the US in January, 2020 committing to buy additional goods worth US$200 billion per annum from the US. The Agreement could not be implemented because the Covid-19 pandemic intervened soon thereafter. Sensing this possible sequence of events, several global investors have already started pursuing the China+1 investment strategy. India could be a possible beneficiary under such a scenario. India was not able to take adequate advantage of such a development in the post Covid developments. India will have to improve its game and make itself a more attractive investment destination as compared to some other competitors like Vietnam, Malaysia, Mexico, Poland etc.
Some analysts have suggested that India could face considerable pressure on the issue of immigration and H1B visas. These fears appear unfounded. India has signed a Migration and Mobility Agreement with the US by which it promotes genuine and legal migration of its technical work force and personnel to the US and takes back the illegal migrants after due process of verification. Some technical issues relating to Indian citizens residing in the USA legally and their work permits could come up which will need to be resolved preserving the interest of the individuals involved.
Most of Trump’s senior appointments announced so far are known to be big supporters of even stronger and closer defence, economic and technological partnership between India and USA. They are also not isolationists as Trump is reported to be. It can hence be safely assumed that the US engagement with the World will be sustained and might even increase.
Trump could try and progressively disengage the US from its involvement in Europe and the Middle East so that he can devote greater attention to the Indo-Pacific to push back against the expansionist policies of China.
India looks forward to the Trump 2.0 Presidency with cautious optimism and guarded anticipation. In his message on X (formerly Twitter) on his conversation with President-elect Trump soon after the latter’s victory, PM Modi wrote: ‘’Looking forward to working closely together once again to further strengthen India-US relations across technology, defence, energy, space and several other sectors.’’ Challenges in the world have grown significantly since Trump 1.0. A close understanding and strategic convergence of interests will guide the India-US Global Comprehensive and Strategic Partnership to new heights and promote peace, stability and prosperity, not only for the people of the two countries but for the world.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar is Executive Council Member, Mahohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses; President, Institute of Global Studies; Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassdor of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia.
