Three years into the Russia – Ukraine conflict, India had to navigate through a tough diplomatic tight rope against a vitriolic western alliance and a traditional friend, to assert its strategic autonomy and maintain a consultative, collaborative and cooperative mechanism with either side in the face of severe criticism. While maintaining that sovereignty and territorial integrity are non-negotiable in a free world, it stopped short of criticising Russia for its aggression and abstained from multiple UN resolutions emphasising that it was on the side of peace through dialogue and diplomacy. Castigated for importing oil from Russia that sustained its war effort, Ukraine went to the extent of whining that Russian oil that India imports is mixed with Ukrainian blood. European duplicity was highlighted by Dr Jaishankar pointing out that what India imports in a month is less than what Europe imports in one afternoon and that Europe must get over the idea that Europe’s problems are world’s problems but world’s problems are not Europe’s. Maintaining a nuanced diplomatic stance, India continued to maintain its contact with both sides with the PM highlighting to Putin in Sep 2022 that ‘Today’s era is not for war’, emphasising the importance of democracy, diplomacy and dialogue. His statements resonated through western capitals with greater acceptance of India’s balanced approach; at one time being preferred as a suitable interlocutor for conflict resolution. While PM Modi was criticised for embracing Putin during his visit to Russia in July 2024, coinciding with the NATO summit in Washington, the very same Russia is now being placated for a peace agreement when at its strongest bargaining position with hitherto unthinkable concessions.
The world is at an inflection point triggered by change of guard at the White House and the Trump phenomenon of unprecedented policy reversals. Jettisoning decades of historical, military and economic convergence, US aligned with Russia rejecting UN resolution ES-11/7 condemning Russia for the invasion, sponsored by Europe in Feb 2025. US accused Ukraine of not only triggering the conflict but also its dictatorial President with less than 4% approval rating perpetuating the unwinnable war. It hit the pause button for both the military aid and intelligence sharing soon after the Oval Office disaster, restoring them only after Ukraine retracted demand on security guarantee, for a ceasefire and mineral deal on American terms. Conscious of irreplaceability of US with European military and economic support, Zelensky sought to assuage hurt to American pride through his letter to the US president. There is a tectonic recasting of trans-Atlantic alliance with US threatening to the pullout from NATO, (whose support it seeks to annex Greenland); along with WHO (and may be IMF and World Bank). Emboldened by US vacillation, Russian juggernaut in eastern Ukraine has intensified missile and drone attacks with the recent recapture of Kursk. Ukraine thus has lost its only bargaining chip to regain lost territory.
The unprecedented turn of events has only vindicated India’s stand on maintaining strategic autonomy in an increasingly unstable geo strategic environment where there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent national interests. US isolationism portends to retreat from the world demanding reciprocal benefits for economic and military support it extends even beyond Europe, including Japan and Taiwan.
The Tariff Conundrum
India enjoys a $45 billion trade surplus over the US being a distant nineth amongst countries that enjoy a trade surplus with the US. However, Trump seems to have developed an obsession towards Indian tariffs calling it the tariff king. US goods face a weighted average tariff of 7.7% in India while Indian exports(18%) face a tariff of 2.8% leading to a 4.9% differential. India charges 37.7% on US farm products to protect its domestic farmers, while US imposes 5.3% on Indian farm exports, all these being well within WTO regulations. Prior to the PM’s visit to US, India implemented conciliatory tariff reductions to assuage US concerns. Notwithstanding the proposed mutually beneficial trade agreement between the two by September 2025, the reciprocal tariffs are likely to come into effect from 2nd April 25. Economic experts though predict the turbulence to be manageable.
Driven by US tariff threats, multiple countries and conglomerates have turned to India to diversify their trade relations. In an unprecedented move, the European President Ursula Von Der Leyen led 22 EU commissioners to India in Feb 2025 to expedite the free trade agreement, languishing since 2007; calling India one of the most trusted friends. There is greater urgency in completing the India-UK free trade agreement. Close on the heels of the EU delegation, a high level Belgian economic delegation visited India from 01 to 8 March 25. New Zealand has relaunch FTA negotiations with India after a gap of 10 years. With Mark Carney’s election as the Liberal Leader in Canada and his intention to repair relations with India, Canada is desperate to find alternatives to trade with the US. Since Feb 22, India has expanded Economic Partnership Agreement/ trade agreements with UAE, Australia, Norway and Switzerland with rupee settlements with UAE, Australia, Russia and Maldives. The Indian commerce secretary, in his deposition before a parliamentary board, denied making any commitment to the US on tariffs reduction, while at the same time indicating opening up of Indian telecom sector to Starlink through Jio and Airtel hitherto constrained due to security considerations. Further, whether it is F35 with its huge cost differential and doubts on technology transfer and local production, oil or gas; trade deals will have to be mutually beneficial. Given the cost differential, Tesla is unlikely to dent the Tata and Mahindra domination in the electric car segment which is just 2.4 % of Indian automobile industry. Lately, Russia has offered engines for Tejas Mk1A aircraft in the backdrop of overly delayed GE F404 engines from US. Just about every consequential power is courting India economically, diplomatically and militarily. All these indicate the rapidly growing economic and business alternatives to stressed tariff relations with the US. Despite risks, India cannot be browbeaten (to drink more American whiskey ) and has displayed pragmatism in its response mechanism unlike an open confrontation like Canada (over electricity) and EU.
Geo Strategic Situation
Over the last few years, India has positioned itself in a propitious geo strategic disposition through subtle diplomatic heft.
- The October 24 meeting between Xi Jinping and PM Modi has induced thaw along the LAC, complemented by India’s resilient and uncompromising response to PLA transgressions. Though Beijing has been untrustworthy, its economic and domestic regression coupled with unexpected consequences of long term deployment along the LAC is likely to prevent it from misadventures in the immediate term. Recent conciliatory statements from PM Modi’s interaction with Lex Fridman and Beijing’s reaction tend to cool tempers.
- The US – Russia reproachment has the flip side of attenuating Russian diplomatic and economic dependence on China (The Russia-China-Iran axis on nuclear issue at best being a negotiating leverage) to India’s advantage. The no limit partnership can be viewed as contextual as Russia hates to play second fiddle even to Beijing.
- Strategic patience and pragmatism has restored India’s traditional relations with Maldives where President Muizzu won the elections on an India out campaign. Economic bailing out of Sri Lanka and negotiations with IMF has led to the erstwhile India critic Dissanayake assuring that it’s soil will never be used for anti-India activities. Predatory and unreliable BRI strategy of China is facing economic and political headwinds in most of the world.
- The hands off approach indicated by US towards Bangladesh after supposedly triggering the regime change, offers India the latitude to deal with the country with a carrot and a stick approach. Its political, economic and ideological recalibration is unsustainable due to its sociocultural and linguistic distinctiveness.
- India’s approach towards the Arab-Israeli imbroglio has been consistent with its long established conviction. While the terror component of Oct 7 attack inside Israel cannot be condoned, the two state solution supported by India and indeed most of the World is synonymous with UN resolution 242 of 1967, reaffirmed in Dec 2024. The US proposal of a Riviera of the Middle East in Gaza displacing 2.3 mn Palestinians is an unworkable proposal.
- In the emerging circumstances, India’s strident stand on reformation of global institutions including the UN is gathering greater traction.
Trump administration’s first few days in office seem to resonate what Lenin had said “ there are decades where nothing happens and then there are weeks when decades happen”. The post second World War politico- economic and security alliances are facing headwinds over reciprocal benefits for US. While US is planning to reduce 20 % of troop deployment and cutting diplomatic staff in Europe, the latter has unveiled ReArm Europe initiative with a $875bn plan. Germany seeks change in leadership of the free world and raise defence expenditure through constitutional amendments. France which in 2023 opined against Europe being a vassel of the US is proposing extension of nuclear umbrella over Europe along with boots on the ground and planes in the air by Britain. In the evolving geoeconomics and geostrategy, given its balanced approach, India appears to be in a sweet spot to act as a bridge between the US and Europe on one side and Russia-China-Iran-North Korea on the other. Where else can one imagine top end military equipment of US and Russia finding common platform than at Aero India 2025. If US desires to become great again through expansionism (Canada, Greenland, Panama Canal), isolationism, transactionalism ( it has never been benign), protectionism and retreat from the multilateral organisations, India seeks to achieve Viksit Bharat through multilateralism, inclusiveness, self-reliance and concept of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam. PM Modi’s expansive articulation of his world view in his interaction with Lex Fridman only goes to substantiate this narrative.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Major General SC Mohanty, AVSM (Retd), was commissioned in June 1983. The officer commanded a Mechanised Infantry Battalion, a Mechanised Brigade and an Infantry Division (RAPID Strike) in the Western Sector. As a Brigade Major, he took active part in the Kargil Operations while located at Drass. As part of Military Operations Directorate, he headed the Information Warfare, Cyber and Electronic Warfare branches. Post retirement, he was the Security Advisor to Government of Arunachal Pradesh from July 2020 to May 2023.
