Shifting Sands: Congress is Unpredictable as the Sensex, but not Gaining over Time

In a recent gathering of Congress workers in Gujarat, leader of the Opposition and Senior Congress leader, Rahul Gandhi made a most startling revelation. Addressing this gathering of his ‘own’ workers, he said among them, there was this half who were active, sincere, working on the ground, loyal to the party. He said the other half were not glued on the ground, and half of that are actually working for the BJP. Now this is a most astounding share to come from Rahul Gandhi, who is virtually, give and take, the caretaker of the Congress party – a quarter so to say, are sabotaging the party! 

Leave the BJP reference aside, as that may be most unwarranted. But that they were not with him, for one reason or the other. Either they did not believe in him, did not count him as with significant gravitas; or had their own agenda, not in sync with the party’s interests. It is a house divided. And why, this begs the question?

Is there any deeper story behind this? Looking back at his tenure at the helm of the Congress, there have been ups and downs, starting first with fissures between the old guard and the young aspirants, with whispers suggesting that mother and son may not be on the same page; the old guard claimed loyalty to the mother, she was unable to get them off her back, or did not want to, not trusting the ability of the younger brigade, or whatever. The fact is that the transition never happened, as the internal wars continue to stifle the party. 

How did transitions happen in recent history? Indira Gandhi introduced her famous Kamaraj plan when she was beginning to ride the high wave, and she did. Effectively, it was to say that those who were in opposition to her in her own party should get sidelined by being given senior positions by becoming mentors to the party. Ironically enough, the same thing happened in 2014 when Prime Minister Modi began his process to come to the centre. He too launched this senior citizen programme by which LK Advani, Manohar Joshi and more such of their vintage got sidelined. Modi bestowed mentorship status to the older lot who could have been opposition, in one single act, and then there has been no looking back.

Both said they did not need this opposition, whether it was Indira Gandhi, in her time, whether it was Narendra Modi in his time. Rahul Gandhi has not managed to do this. Ever since he came into prominence over the last 10-15 years, he has been battling a situation where he finds himself compromised, not for his own case, not for his own reason, but because of the continued prominence of his own senior leaders. He has not been able to sideline them. Very often we heard he was working upon some plan. He had his own second line but all this while, he has been only experimenting. 

But the fact is that Rahul Gandhi, even as of today, 2025, after 15 years of being virtually at the helm of the Congress party, has not been able to find ways and means to get rid of this so-called – not deadwood, because it is active wood, but not working to a common cause. They are still effective, have the ability to get votes, but they are also opposition from within. They are also money baggers. They are influence peddlers in their own states and they have delivered in the past. They are prominent, they’re successful. They have carried the legacy of the Congress party all these years. They were the party satraps, when Rahul was gaining ascendancy; they remain so, now as well. 

Unfortunately, these are also compromised, vulnerable, with a hostile and over-zealous centre working upon them, with investigative agencies at work, as they remain with ‘files’ open on them, at least that is what is commonly said. 

Are they so vulnerable that at times when the final die is to be cast, they don’t stand by their own party’s interests? Allegations fly high at the most unfortunate of times for the party and the leader’s opportunity to claim success. 

Can he do a Kamaraj plan equivalent at this stage? Will these still active leaders who have lived for the party, with due recognition and rewards, agree voluntarily to call it a day, to say they would not interfere anymore and become only senior mentors and guides, available only for advice. They perhaps owe this to their party that has served them well; indeed, one that they too have served well. But then times have changed, circumstances as well. The rules of engagement have changed, with a ruling dispensation that would be difficult to encounter and win against. The BJP/RSS machinery is an exceptionally well-oiled double engine structure that has only gained in strength over the last decade. They have literally everything under their control – unmatched funds, government agencies, effective cadres eager to remain in power, in fact, hungry for more. What this means is they are unbeatable in their present form, with their unbridled talent, much like a winning Indian IPL team that is the best of the best.

How then did the Congress muster 99 seats in the last national elections, almost doubled their strength in the Lok Sabha? Difficult to say, but possibly by default, as there are reports to suggest that some fault lines had begun to weaken the BJP/RSS togetherness. Which, we also gather, had begun to mend, right before the Haryana elections. So, what we had then – said to be a walk over for the Congress, given that the then ruling state government was facing strong anti-incumbency, the BJP changed horses well in advance, brought in a 100% neutral head, with ‘zero’ baggage; there was none in the party who dared disobey or express disappointment for being ignored. 

At the same time, the Congress was busy watching in full public glare, a soap opera playing out, with rivals claiming to be the CM face, certain of their party victory. The so called ‘high-command’ was anything but that. Both parties should have been overlooked, an unknown face should have been made the CM face, and the party should have been allowed to lose, if that was fait accompli, but discipline mattered and the voice of the high command mattered. But it would have given birth to a new party with new roots and strength to build for a new era of development for the party. What we saw instead was an indecisive and ineffective high command. 

Another story doing the rounds is that the old guard has done it all, seen it all, have nothing more to prove, they are well settled, want to risk nothing, achieve nothing more. But they don’t want to retire, still have the last word. In these circumstances, can Team Rahul bring in a Kamaraj plan equivalent? 

Meanwhile, the BJP in state after state, are bringing a new unchallenged face as the CM, whether it be in Goa, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or in Delhi, most recently. 

Any new strategy must be clear in its implementation, swift, multi-pronged, in keeping with the fast-changing dynamics in the political space. And, not to forget, the party must refresh its ideology, spell it out loud and clear, as presently it appears to water it down, every other month.


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