The Incident
At about 2.30 pm on 22 April 25, four terrorists came out of the woods in Baisaran, a picturesque meadow, and selectively killed holidaying tourists from across India. There is an image that portrays a sense of loss of the immense tragedy. A lady still wearing her wedding bangles sitting next to her slain husband, a young Naval Officer, in a pristine meadow surrounded by a dense forest. No words are required to explain the emotions.
The incident shattered the peace in Kashmir, leaving 26 innocent tourists dead, who were targeted based mainly on their religious identity. The attack at the Baisaran meadow, opens a brutal window of terror, at a time when the dividends of peace were being felt in the Valley and tourism was on the rise.
Unfortunately, as normalcy returned, we seem to have lowered the guard as far as area domination by security personnel is concerned. As per reports, there was no Security Post in the area which is frequented by a large number of tourists.
Poor intelligence is the most important cause of the incident. Intelligence failure due to the fallacy of peace created intelligence voids. The intelligence grid must be restored to prevent both infiltration and escape. Every possible technology is required to counter the terrorists, as well as identify the sympathisers, as no such action can be carried out without the help of local sympathisers. Have no doubt, the locals knew. They knew terrorists had entered. They knew something was amiss. But they kept quiet.
The timing of the attack is also significant and cannot be ignored. It happened on the day when the Vice President of US was visiting India and our Prime Minister was visiting Riyadh. No doubt, the Pakistan Army was still smarting from the recent Jaffar train incident and as predicted, felt that the best way to divert the attention of its population was to attack India.
Obsession and Aftermath
The terrorist attack claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), an off-shoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), clearly had the backing of the Pakistan Army. Pakistan will of course use the cloak of plausible deniability to prevent itself from being held accountable for the terror attack.
For the Pakistan Army, India remains an obsession which is evident from the remarks of General Asim Munir, when he mentioned the two-nation theory, while addressing the Overseas Pakistani Convention in Islamabad. He said “Our stance is absolutely clear, Kashmir was our jugular vein, it will be our jugular vein, we will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle. Muslims are different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life. Our religions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory. We are two nations; we are not one nation.” In fact, this anti-India diatribe by Asim Munir, was probably the main reason for this terror strike. It appears that when he made these statements, he already knew what was going to happen. He knew that only Hindus were going to be targeted. It also appears like a challenge to India to take cognisance of what he is saying and respond irrationally. Something that India will obviously not do.
Since the Pakistan’s Army knows that it cannot take on India in a conventional contest, it focuses on three issues; firstly, developing a nuclear capability, secondly, carrying out a proxy war by using terrorists and thirdly, cultivating collusivity with China. It feels that the first and third can prevent a strong reaction by India while the second continues to bleed India by a thousand cuts. Hence, 22nd April can be seen as a continuum of the Parliament attack, 26/11, Uri and Pulwama.
For Pakistan, its relevance in the Kashmir narrative is evaporating. This is evident from the call of Bandh given post the attack by all political parties. The locals came out and risked their lives to rescue those caught in the attack. Further, the shutdown in Kashmir was initiated by the citizens of Kashmir itself, thereby sending a clear message to the terrorists that henceforth local support may not be available. This seems to be a defining moment.
Terrorism a Tactic of the Weak
Terrorism will remain a tactic of the weak who lack the courage and strength to fight militarily. A comprehensive solution is thus needed to counter and prevent such attacks. The Pahalgam attack is simply not just an attack to internationalise the Kashmir issue but is also aimed at destabilising India internally and creating a communal divide.
Our response while being strong must be guided by professional inputs and not by mass public incitement or sentiments. Across the globe, countries have strongly condemned this incident and came out in support of India, including US and China.
President Trump strongly condemned the terror attack and expressed full support to India to bring to justice the perpetrators of the “heinous attack.” In a post he said that “India and the United States stand together in the fight against terror.” The Chinese Ambassador Xu Feihong said, “Shocked by the attack in Pahalgam and condemn (it). Deep condolences for the victims and sincere sympathies to the injured and the bereaved families.” He also stated that they “oppose terrorism of all forms.”
Afghanistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson also condemned the attack and expressed sympathy with the families of those who lost their lives.
India’s response to this internal security challenge is being watched by those across the border. There is no doubt that the incident was pre-meditated and carried out with religious orientation factoring in a new dimension in the terror matrix. The gravity of the challenge was evident when the Prime Minister quickly cut short his trip to Saudi Arabia and Home Minister rushed to Kashmir.
India’s Response
The fact is that India is dealing with a highly professional and ideological neighbour whose decision-making structure is bereft of political constraints. Considering this we need to evaluate our response matrix. A whole of nation approach to tackle Pakistan is the only solution.
While the response matrix is being debated, what matters is that we have to be a step ahead in the escalatory ladder and cannot be impulsive irrespective of domestic compulsions. One must keep in mind that often suppression of violence is mistaken for weakness. There is a time to act, and a time not to.
All options ranging from political, diplomatic economic and military will be analysed. Which option is chosen or what combination of options are chosen will be exercised. Some of them have already been announced. These include suspension of Indus Water Treaty, closing of the Attari Border with immediate effect, the expulsion of diplomats, reduction of staff of High Commission’s from 55 to 30, Pakistan Military Advisors being declared persona non grata and an order for some Pakistani visa holders to leave within 48 hours.
At the conclusion of the CCS’s meeting to review the overall security situation, the Indian Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri said, “that the perpetrators of the attack will be brought to justice and their sponsors held to account.” He also spoke about the recent extradition of Tahawwur Hussain Rana and said that India will be unrelenting in the pursuit of those who have committed the act of terror and have conspired to make them possible.
The escalation ladder has many steps including economic, diplomatic, political, and military. Military actions are the most punitive and require deliberate planning and execution. Post the attack on the Indian Parliament, Operation Parakram was launched with large-scale mobilisation of troops. The range of military options are immense across all spectrums. These could include localised action or precision strikes and many others, the last off course being conventional war. The fact is that time for strategic patience is now in the past.
Speaking at Arjan Singh Memorial Lecture, Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh condemned the attack and assured that “we will take every step that is necessary and appropriate and we will not only trace those who perpetrated this incident, we will also reach those who, hiding behind the scenes, have conspired to carry out such a ‘napaak’ (impure) act on the soil of India.”
While retaliation is inevitable, the manner in which we propose to respond is best left to those currently in authority. We need to meet this challenge and ensure that our response acts as a deterrent for preventing reoccurrence of such instances.
In such times Pakistan invariably starts to flash the nuclear card, with all kind of threats and Sabre rattling. Sure enough, the Pakistan Minister Hanif Abbasi, has already warned that the Pakistan’s arsenal – including Ghori, Shaheen, and Ghaznavi missiles along with 130 nuclear warheads – has been kept “only for India”. However, our patience has certainly run out, let the adversary be reminded of our immense nuclear capability, armed with our resolve, and stated policy of massive retaliation.
Conclusion
Since August 2019, India has achieved great success in containing terror in J&K. The security forces ensured that terrorists were on the backfoot, tourism was on the rise and the local economy was benefitting. But while a large number of tourists is a visible sign of peace, but their presence always needed to be weighed against such black swan events.
The massacre in Pahalgam seems to have turned the clock back. The attack is a clear reminder that the state remains under the constant threat from the forces that seek to cause instability. The assault therefore demands an appropriate strategic response while simultaneously there is also a need to introspect dispassionately as to why it took place.
The government has acted wisely in announcing a series of diplomatic measures. There is no doubt when anger and grief dominate, a muscular response comes to the fore. But the use of kinetics has its own consequences. What is more important is prevention of such events. The army needs to be given a free hand to firmly control terrorism. A deliberate thought needs to be given regarding imposition of AFSPA, in places where it was revoked. There is no normalcy in Kashmir, as is evident from this incident.
The primary perpetrator is Pakistan and its proxies only understand the language of coercion and violence and not rationality. Every act of theirs has to be responded with firm punitive measures. But who all are Pakistan’s proxy war on India. Let us not be too gullible in this regard.
India must enhance its intelligence grid, to ensure that such incidents are avoided in the future. There is no room for the guard to be down. There is no substitute for physical presence in mountainous terrain. Drones, cameras, intercepts are in their own place, but none of this replaces the intuition, presence, and deterrence that boots on the ground provide.
Meanwhile it must be ensured that the perpetrators and state sponsors of the present attack are brought to book. Responsible statecraft and deterrence are the key. The Prime Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi has said that the attackers and conspirators would be punished “beyond their imagination.”
The Pahalgam attack should be seen as a watershed moment. The solution lies in every Indian joining in and sparing no effort in taking this incident to its most appropriate conclusion. We all know that Pakistan remains a global hub of terror, despair, and darkness.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Maj Gen VK Singh, VSM was commissioned into The Scinde Horse in Dec 1983. The officer has commanded an Independent Recce Sqn in the desert sector, and has the distinction of being the first Armoured Corps Officer to command an Assam Rifles Battalion in Counter Insurgency Operations in Manipur and Nagaland, as well as the first General Cadre Officer to command a Strategic Forces Brigade. He then commanded 12 Infantry Division (RAPID) in Western Sector. The General is a fourth generation army officer.
Major General Jagatbir Singh was commissioned into 18 Cavalry in December 1981. During his 38 years of service in the Army he has held various command, staff and instructional appointments and served in varied terrains in the country. He has served in a United Nations Peace Keeping Mission as a Military Observer in Iraq and Kuwait. He has been an instructor to Indian Military Academy and the Defence Services Staff College, Wellington. He is a prolific writer in defence & national security and adept at public speaking.
