Introduction
Op Sindoor was a seminal moment in the Indian military and statecraft. One of the key doctrinal takeaways of Operation Sindoor was the ‘Escalation Management”. It exemplified both operational art and manoeuvre warfare targeting both the will and window of the adversary. It implied escalation control, escalation domination, retaining initiative and at each stage evolving a favourable conflict termination profile, without the war escalating to a nuclear domain. It reflected a mature and responsible national security posture – ‘fist for a finger’ yet with calibrated constraint, political resolve and operational clarity. It broke the shackles of strategic restraint and led to the Cold Start Doctrine paving the way for the Cold Strike Doctrine. In a world where limited wars are fought in overlapping domains, cognitive battles are as important as kinetic exchanges. Sindoor represents an essential case study in escalation management. This article unpacks its key facets, examines doctrinal implications, and charts a path forward for India’s evolving deterrence and response architecture.
Rethinking Escalation Management: From Aversion to Orchestration
Escalation management, as demonstrated in Operation Sindoor, must be understood not as the avoidance of conflict but as its precise calibration. The traditional Indian approach, long burdened by strategic restraint, often blurred the lines between prudence and paralysis. Sindoor marked a departure. India’s response was not reactive—it was deliberate, layered, punitive and time-critical. Every phase of the operation—whether the initial deep and diverse precision strikes on terror infrastructure to devastating Pakistan’s military capability by counter strikes on strategic airfields, or the carefully timed pause—reflected a conscious orchestration of force.
Rather than viewing the escalation ladder as a linear climb, India treated it as a modular matrix—leveraging military, informational, diplomatic, and economic instruments in tandem. This fusion allowed New Delhi to control the tempo and intensity of operations without being drawn into a full-spectrum war. Each rung of the engagement was measured against the desired political aim with strategic clarity and military precision. The ability to retain initiative and dominate the adversary’s will and capability at each ladder became the defining feature of the escalation ladder.
Shrinking the OODA Loop: The Bedrock of Escalation Dominance
The key in 21st-century warfare is the quality of first – observe first, orient first, decide first and act first. This is also called in military parlance the OODA loop—Observe, Orient, Decide, Act—while stretching out the adversary. It aims to empower – situational awareness, decision superiority, superior strike capability and escalation dominance. Operation Sindoor exemplified this doctrine in action. India’s use of real-time intelligence from Indigenous space-based C5ISR, loitering munitions, AI-enabled targeting, and cyber and electronic warfare capabilities allowed it to act before Pakistan could even regroup, let alone retaliate effectively.
The operation showcased how the convergence of technology, command integration, and intent can produce time asymmetry that is not just tactical but profoundly strategic. It redefined deterrence—not merely as a promise of assured retribution but as a posture of denial and domination. When an adversary realizes that its provocations will be met not just with retaliation but with systemic paralysis, deterrence begins to shift from rhetoric to reality.
Looking ahead, this shrinking of OODA loops must be institutionalised. AI-led fusion centres, autonomous ISR platforms, and secure, theatre-level data ecosystems must become the new norm. In the wars of the future, whoever acts first may well define how the war ends.
Multi-Domain Operations: From Concept to Core Doctrine
Operation Sindoor was not fought in one domain—it was a multidomain operation with cross-domain linkages. From space to cyberspace, air to land, electromagnetic to cognitive, the Indian response was integrated and simultaneous. This wasn’t jointmanship—it was genuine integration. Space-based intelligence fed real-time targeting grids. Cyber operations disrupted Pakistan’s command cohesion. Electronic warfare blinded its sensors. UAVs and manned aircraft operated in synchronized fire cycles. The orchestration of these assets revealed that India’s warfighting architecture is evolving toward true Multi-Domain Operations (MDO).
What this means for doctrine is significant. MDO can no longer be treated as an enabler—it must become the principal construct around which operations are designed. This shift requires not just new platforms but a restructuring of how services communicate, plan, and execute. Commanders must think across domains, and integration must be designed into the DNA of all future commands. In a conflict where the adversary may target satellites before tanks, doctrines that privilege domain-specificity will only fall short.
Conflict Termination: The Strategic Profile of Victory
In the fog of limited wars, victory is not just about battlefield attrition—it is about the timing and conditions under which conflict ends. Operation Sindoor revealed the power of conflict termination as a strategic objective. India’s decision to pause after achieving operational aims was not a signal of fatigue but a demonstration of control. It ended on India’s terms—after degrading the adversary’s infrastructure, resetting deterrence, and leaving Pakistan in a reactive, diplomatically isolated position.
This model of conflict termination is essential for the future. Escalation dominance is incomplete without termination dominance. Each rung of the escalation ladder must include built-in exit ramps—not just to de-escalate, but to pause, recalibrate, and if needed, re-enter conflict from a position of advantage. Future doctrines must outline termination profiles that reflect both military logic and political necessity. The goal is not simply to stop fighting but to conclude a conflict in a way that enhances long-term deterrence and reshapes adversary calculus.
Narrative Dominance: The Missing Lever in the Cognitive Arena
Despite India’s operational success, Operation Sindoor exposed a critical gap—narrative control. While Indian forces delivered a high-tempo response, the global narrative was diluted. Pakistan claimed diplomatic wins. The international media framed India’s calibrated pause as external pressure. This cognitive deficit weakened India’s ability to capitalise on battlefield gains.
In modern warfare, perception is not the by-product of action—it is the battlefront itself. Narrative dominance is escalation dominance in the cognitive domain. It must precede the first strike, accompany every phase of combat, and shape the post-conflict landscape. This requires a tri-service strategic communication structure integrated with military planners, diplomats, legal experts, and cyber specialists. A national information warfare architecture must be established—capable of operating in contested environments, identifying disinformation, and projecting a coherent Indian story across digital, diplomatic, and legal arenas.
Adversary-Specific Escalation Models: One Size Model Does Not Fit All
The strategic behaviours of Pakistan and China are fundamentally different—and so must be our escalation strategies. Pakistan thrives in the sub-conventional domain. It relies on terror proxies, plausible deniability, and risk tolerance, expecting India to remain restrained. Operation Sindoor shattered that assumption by converting proxy war from a low-cost tool into a high-cost gamble. That deterrence must now be institutionalised through quick-reaction precision doctrines that punish, isolate, and degrade Pakistan’s terror-industrial complex.
China, on the other hand, operates in the shadows of ambiguity. It prefers grey-zone coercion, denial-of-escalation mechanisms, and layered A2/AD architecture. Here, India’s response must rely not on rapid retaliation but on persistent deterrence-in-being. Naval posturing in the Indo-Pacific, forward-deployed ISR assets and assured cyber attribution mechanisms form the new trinity of counter-coercion. India must think and prepare differently for each adversary—because one size fits all does not work.
Preparing for the Next Round: The Foundation of Dominance
The strategic landscape is evolving. Pakistan is acquiring advanced Chinese platforms such as the HQ-19 anti-ballistic missile system, and the KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft, and is negotiating for fifth-generation JF-35 fighters. These assets will complicate Indian air superiority, enhance adversary early warning, and raise the cost of limited war. Moreover, if future provocations are backed by Chinese escalation guarantees, the risk calculus itself may shift.
India must respond with agility—not just in force application but in thought and preparation. Escalation matrices must be dynamic, scenario-based, and reconfigurable in real-time. The mantra will be Spot-Readiness, Agility, Velocity, Lethality and Survivability empowered by Missile cum Drone Divisions, a Space Command, a C5ISR and EW Command, a Cyber Command and above all a Cognitive Warfare tri-service structure focussed on Perception Management and Narrative Warfare.
Political and military leadership must share a common operational language rooted in wargaming, joint scenario planning, and time-bound rehearsal. The next round may not resemble Sindoor but could well be Sindoor 2.0, Galwan 2.0 Bangladesh 1.0 or even an amalgam of them. The legacy of collusion is being shaped by the quality of the fusion of our threats. We need to build both capacities and capabilities to optimise the utility of Force – employability, deployability and capability at short notice. It cannot be an episodical response it must be a well-planned and time-sensitive strategic impetus for future threats.
Recommendations for Policy and Doctrine
A Doctrinal Compass for Escalation Management
First, India needs to codify an escalation management doctrine that is modular, multi-domain, and adversary-specific. This doctrine must include clear conflict termination pathways and narrative strategies, ensuring that military operations align with strategic end-states. Escalation should not be feared—it should be managed, calibrated, and communicated.
This doctrine must be operationalised through tri-service integration and embedded into Professional Military Education (PME). Leaders must be trained not just to command troops, but to operate within joint, multi-domain task forces capable of decisive action under ambiguity.
Institutionalising Information Warfare
Modern warfare is as much about perception as it is about precision. India must institutionalise information warfare capabilities through dedicated formations that integrate cyber, psychological operations, legal warfare, and strategic communications. These tools must be elevated from adjunct roles to frontline enablers of combat power and deterrence.
National Simulation for Strategic Clarity
India’s strategic leadership requires a sharper edge in crisis gaming. A National Escalation Simulation Centre should be established to run conflict simulations and red-team assessments. This will serve as a decision-support ecosystem for policymakers and military leaders to anticipate options, calibrate responses, and prevent strategic surprises.
Deepening Political-Military Synergy
Political-military integration is essential for a coherent strategy. Uniformed officers must be embedded in the MEA’s planning cells, while diplomats should be deputed to key defence establishments. The establishment of a Centre for Contemporary Pakistan Studies modelled on the existing Centre for Contemporary China Studies, would also bring a sharper strategic focus to our Western theatre.
From Platform-Heavy to Capability-Driven Forces
India must pivot from platform-centric thinking to a capability-centric force design—prioritising speed, survivability, and adaptability. The future battlefield demands the integration of drones, cyber, C5ISR systems, and electronic warfare into modular combat teams. The evolution of Integrated Battle Groups (IBGs) must reflect this shift.
An AI-enabled Missile-Drone Force under the Artillery Division can provide rapid, precise, and deep-strike options. Likewise, a persistent, integrated C5ISR architecture is no longer a luxury—it is the nervous system of modern operations. The idea of a dedicated C5ISR Division deserves serious attention.
New Frontiers: Space, Cyber and Electronic Warfare
Operation Sindoor highlighted the critical role of space, cyber, and electronic warfare as core warfighting domains, not auxiliary tools. India must establish a dedicated Space Command to enhance targeting, navigation, and strategic situational awareness. Like Israel, it must develop the ability to eliminate high-value targets with precision. Cyber capabilities—offensive and defensive—must be integrated into kinetic operations. Equally vital is electronic warfare: jamming, spoofing, and disrupting enemy networks in real-time. Sindoor proved the potential of this triad; future readiness demands it be institutionalized as a pillar of India’s evolving deterrence doctrine.
Winning the Narrative War
Strategic communication should be elevated to a combat capability. India needs a professionalised public and military communication arm to counter disinformation, project intent, and shape global opinion. Winning battles without winning the narrative is a strategic half-measure. We need a tri-service voice by way of a seasoned DG Strategic Communication, like the Pakistani DG ISPR who stumbles but carries the narrative.
Enablers: PME, Technology Innovation, and Budgetary Reform
Modern warfighting requires not just new tools, but new mindsets. PME must be rewired to foster multi-domain leadership, creativity, and innovation with techno leaders to the fore. Simultaneously, a vibrant defence ecosystem—with room for startups, R&D, and flexible funding—will be key to sustaining future readiness. The need for both budgetary reforms and enhanced envelop to match the acquisition cycle with the technology cycle is critical.
Conclusion: Escalation as a Domain of Strategic Mastery
Operation Sindoor taught us that escalation control is not about fearing the next step but mastering it. It’s not about being risk averse but risk management. It is about compressing time, expanding choice, and narrowing the adversary’s room to manoeuvre. It is about designing operations not just for impact, but for outcome. In today’s warfare, victory lies in controlling not just the battlefield, but the tempo, the narrative, and the choices available to your opponent. This is escalation dominance—not as a posture of provocation, but as a discipline of strategic foresight.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Lieutenant General A B Shivane, is the former Strike Corps Commander and Director General of Mechanised Forces. As a scholar warrior, he has authored over 200 publications on national security and matters defence, besides four books and is an internationally renowned keynote speaker. The General was a Consultant to the Ministry of Defence (Ordnance Factory Board) post-superannuation. He was the Distinguished Fellow and held COAS Chair of Excellence at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies 2021 2022. He is also the Senior Advisor Board Member to several organisations and Think Tanks.
