India’s dexterous and nuanced foreign policy in the context of contemporary global security landscape has not only vindicated itself in the evolving geo-economic and geopolitical contestations; consequent to the inscrutable Trump phenomena but has earned it grudging appreciation from even its adversaries. Whether it is the Russia-Ukraine war, the conflict in West Asia or response to the changing dynamics of Western alliance; India has been able to maintain its unwavering strategic autonomy synonymous with its long term national interests. Over the last few years, India has been able to shore up its relations with the extended neighbourhood (West Asia, ASEAN, Central Asia, East Africa and Indo Pacific region) through active, collaborative and vigorous engagement and has come to be seen as an influential global power backed up by military and economic heft. The same has been complemented by multilateralism, collective progress and the concept of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam.
However, it is the socio-political, economic and ideological turmoil in the immediate neighbourhood which lend them vulnerable to strategic intervention affecting India’s growth and security. Leaving aside the convoluted relationship with Pakistan, recalcitrant neighbours with aberrant leadership in Bangladesh, Nepal and Maldives try to intermittently rile India with the sensitive China card. Combined with the civil war in Myanmar, the environment is hardly conducive to India’s aspirational growth and development. India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy along with SAGAR (Security and Growth For All in the Region) manifested in the outreach to SAARC(2014), BIMSTEC(2019), Indian Ocean Region(2024) leaders during the PM’s inauguration underscoring its commitment to regional cooperation. If India has to emerge as the leader of the Global South and as a developed nation by 2047, stabilisation of the immediate neighbourhood is imperative.
Bangladesh
The most diabolic transformation of the socio political situation has been in Bangladesh consequent to the monsoon revolution in August 2024. Protest against reservation for the descendants of freedom fighters may have been the trigger against the autocratic rule of Sheikh Hasina but it turned out to be a platform for the politically instigated student leaders supported by JEI and ISI to take centre stage. The unelected governing dispensation led by Muhammad Yunus has not only tried to obliterate every symbol of Bangladesh’s independence, its linguistic nationalism, heritage, secularism and culture but has not left any opportunity to poke India in the eye. The long list of activities inimical to India’s security interests included visit by DG Pakistan ISI (first since 1971), senior military officials, claiming parts of Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal, numerous incidents of prosecution of minorities and even blaming India for floods. The recent bizarre and provocative statement of Mohammad Younus during a visit to China on India’s North East, invitation to China to refurbish Lalmonirhat airbase close to the so called chicken’s neck and reassignment of Teesta River Management project was the last straw on the camel’s back. India responded by withdrawing transshipment facility at Indian ports and airports, in the garb of affecting own exports, significantly impacting Bangladesh exports in the face of 37% tariff by US. Prime Minister Modi made known to Muhammad Yunus during the BRICS summit that rhetoric doesn’t help. The longstanding irritants of Teesta river water sharing, cattle smuggling and infiltration are not unsurmountable as the land border agreement of 2015 has shown. The threat to Siliguri Corridor seems to be over played in the strategic community. The Chicken’s Neck euphemism for the 22 km corridor that connects India’s mainland with the North East has huge deployment of precision land and air resources, prohibitive for any adversary to contemplate an aggression. If Russia can defend Kaliningrad with which it doesn’t even have a land connectivity and Crimea through the Kerch bridge; can Nuclear India with the second largest standing armed forces in the world not be able to defend its North East? Thus far, India has displayed a combination of strategic patience, pragmatism and good neighbourliness in dealing with Bangladesh. However, if it continues to provoke, responses are likely to be punitive and punishing.
Nepal
The recent wide spread demonstration in Nepal in support of reversion to monarchy “Raja aau desh bachao” should be seen more in the light of protracted misgovernance, unemployment, rampant corruption and lack of growth rather than a demand for change in the governance structure. Nepal has witnessed 14 changes in Prime Ministership since 2008 reflecting lack of political stability and people’s frustration. The country has witnessed transition from an absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy to a federal democratic republic punctuated by violent Jan Andolans (Peoples Movement I & II), Royal Takeovers and massacre in 2001 and Maoist Insurgency (1996-2006). It abolished 240 years of Monarchy in favour of a Democratic republic in 2008 and adopted a new constitution in 2015. However, political infighting, power struggle and opportunism has led to coalitions and countercoalitions. Over the last three years governing coalition has shifted from CPN-UML, CPN(MC), RSP to CPN(MC) and NC and back to CPN(MC) and CPN-UML. With 
Prachanda loosing vote of confidence in July 2024, it is back to KP Sharma Oli as PM. It may be recalled that Chinese Ambassador Chen Song failed miserably in bringing about reproachment between the two communist factions to keep the pro India Nepali Congress out of contention. Maoist faction(MC) led by KP Sharma Oli has been a strident opponent of India to the extent of brazenly declaring India controlled areas of Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura as part of Nepal’s territory including resolution in its parliament in 2020. India – Nepal relations have not been without its share of hiccups despite the “Roti Beti ka Rishta” slogan and the close historical, cultural and military relationship between the two nations. The economic blockade in 2015, lack of representation of Madhesis, Agniveer scheme in the military have been particular irritants. Despite Indian ports of Kolkata and Visakhapatman being much closer and logistically prudent, China has offered four sea ports over 3000km away defying geography; to reduce dependency on Indian ports. The proposed trans Himalayan rail link between Shigatse in Tibet and Kathmandu as part of BRI is strategically aimed at weaning Nepal away from India’s sphere of influence. Nepal (as also other neighbours) often tends to exploit India’s sensitivities vis a vis China to extract concessions from both. The ruling dispensation in Nepal needs to appreciate that centuries of closeness between India and Nepal based on geographical, historical, cultural and people to people connect cannot be replaced by China constrained by geography and civilizational disconnect.
Sri Lanka
The Rajapaksha domination in Sri Lankan political landscape buttressed by victory over LTTE in 2009 ended with the severe economic crisis in 2022. The NPP government with JVP as the main constituent, hitherto in the fringes, won a decisive victory in the elections catapulting it to the centre stage of Sri Lankan politics. The JVP has had a bitter and blood soaked history with India during the 1987- 89 insurgency, demanding withdrawal of IPKF and opposing the 13th amendment meant for greater devolution of power to the North and East. It viewed India pursuing its geostrategic interest in the island through strategic investment, arming and training the LTTE. Multiple events thereafter have ameliorated this animosity. India not only promptly provided $4 billion financial aid but also actively supported the $3 billion IMF bailout package to help Sri lanka negotiate its most severe economic downturn. China, its biggest lender on the other hand remained reluctant. As a reflection of faith and gratitude, President Disanayake chose his first port of call as India. The recent visit by PM Modi that resulted in seven MOUs including a rare defence deal, development of Trincomalee as an energy hub and assurance of Sri Lankan waters not being used against security interests of India are signs of strengthening relationship. Contentious issues of fishermen transiting into each other’s territorial waters and greater devolution of power to the North and East were also amicably discussed.
Myanmar
The overall situation in Myanmar continues to remain volatile, made worse by the recent earthquake. The three brotherhood alliance comprising of the Arakan Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance and Ta’ang National Army – has significantly expanded its territorial control in Myanmar since launching Operation 1027 in Oct 2023. It has captured several key towns in Northern Shan State, over 200 military outposts and four major border trade posts, effectively disrupting vital trade routes connecting China. Concerned over disruption of China- Myanmar Economic Corridor, source for rare earth elements and option for direct access to Indian Ocean through Kyaukphyu port as part of addressing the Malacca Dilemma, China brokered a ceasefire between Myanmar military junta “Tatmadaw” and the National Democratic Alliance Army, a key ethnic armed group in Jan 2025. It has also encouraged other members of the brotherhood alliance to enter into peace talks. India on the other hand has traditionally maintained working relations with the military junta. Myanmar is key to stability of India’s North East and the Act East Policy including the Kaladan Multi Modal Transit Transport Project. The Free Movement Regime along the Indian-Myanmar Border that permitted border population to move freely up to 16 Km on either side has been suspended since Covid 19 followed by Manipur unrest. The Indian Government has resolved to fence the border to stop infiltration by insurgents despite resistance from Mizoram and Nagaland due to ethnic affinities. Sensing changed internal dynamics, in Sep 2024 India extended an invitation to Myanmar’s political and military opponents including the NUG and ethnic rebels from Chin, Rakhine and Kachin States to attend a seminar on “Constitutionalism and Federalism” in Delhi. In response to the devastating earthquake on 28 Mar 25, India was first to respond under Operation Brahma with 656 metric tons of humanitarian aid, 80 member NDRF Team and 118 member medical task force. The strategic and economic contestations in Myanmar by regional and extra regional forces will continue. India would have to calibrate its responses synonymous with the internal dynamics of Myanmar to remain ahead of the curve.
Relations with Maldives has been restored to a semblance of normalcy with President Muizzu, who came to power based on “India Out” campaign, realising the fallacy of over dependence on China. India’s proximity and potential as a net security provider in the Indian Ocean region; be it disaster relief, economic assistance or against piracy cannot be ignored. The political, economic and security situation in Pakistan has deteriorated rapidly over the last few months. It has been an excruciating challenge for Pakistan in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa with attacks by TTP increasing manifold and in Baluchistan where the situation is grave after the Jaffar Express hijack. The reputation of Pakistan Army as a saviour has shattered. As expected, the statement of Pakistan Army Chief recently on the ideological differences (Hindus and Muslims) and the two nation theory are attempts to externalise the crisis and unify a fractured populace. Though India has not officially recognised the Taliban regime, it has adopted a pragmatic approach to maintain diplomatic engagements, humanitarian aid and economic ties.
Bhutan continues to steadfastly remain in India’s sphere of influence. However, If it decides to settle its border with China and compromise on territorial exchanges in the West (Doklam) for Chinese claims in the North (Pasamlung and Jamparlung) and East (Sakteng); it will have serious security ramifications for India.
Prognosis
If India wants to achieve Vikshit Bharat by 2047, It is imperative for it to secure its immediate neighbourhood and ensure that it does not have to divert greater resources for additional external, internal and collusive threats. Collective and collaborative growth in South East Asia will suit India’s growth trajectory.
- Given the diverse and disparate dynamics of socio-political, ethnic, economic and security situation in Nepal , Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh; there is no one solution fit all option. Country or region specific multifaceted approach is imperative through mutual cooperation, trust, equality and mutual respect.
- The neighbourhood first and Act East policies will have to be more substantive than symbolic. Engagement with neighbours will have to be sustained, comprehensive, vigorous and long term keeping in view the interconnectedness and co-dependency within the region. Relations with a neighbouring country must not flame out due to a change in government/ leadership.
- Being a geographically, economically and demographically much larger country; India’s approach ought to be generous, non-reciprocal and mutually beneficial. It cannot be held hostage to individual border state’s political dynamics.
Intelligence in the neighbourhood needs to be robust and multi-faceted to facilitate pre-emption of cataclysmic events for appropriate response mechanism. A combination of persuasive Diplomacy and Deterrence (economic and military) would be in order.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Major General SC Mohanty, AVSM (Retd), was commissioned in June 1983. The officer commanded a Mechanised Infantry Battalion, a Mechanised Brigade and an Infantry Division (RAPID Strike) in the Western Sector. As a Brigade Major, he took active part in the Kargil Operations while located at Drass. As part of Military Operations Directorate, he headed the Information Warfare, Cyber and Electronic Warfare branches. Post retirement, he was the Security Advisor to Government of Arunachal Pradesh from July 2020 to May 2023.
