India must Display Strategic Resilience in the Bangladesh Quagmire

It was in June 1996, when I met Major Mohammad Tasnim of East Bengal Regiment (Bangladesh) at the Defence Services Staff College, Wellington. It was a course for middle level armed forces officers, attended by officers from many friendly foreign countries. including Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Nepal, and Afghanistan. I was nominated as the sponsor officer to Major Mohammad Tasnim (and my wife to his wife, Lipi) and happened to be his friend, philosopher, and guide during the one-year course.

All foreign officers attending the course were required to make a presentation about their respective countries to the rest of the participants. I recall, Tasnim’ s riveting presentation that commenced with a warm tribute to India and its valiant soldiers who helped Bangladesh achieve freedom. As I moved along in service, I interacted with many more armed forces officers from Bangladesh including at the National Defence College, which conducts courses on National Security and Strategic Studies at the apex level. There has always been great bonhomie and mutual respect among the officers of India and Bangladesh.

The tumultuous events that unfolded in Bangladesh on 05 August 2024, was not without a simmering discontentment and evolving socio-political milieu triggering its tenuous fault lines. The turmoil was the result of multiplicity of factors including political exclusion, economic distress, wide spread unemployment amongst youth, cost of living crisis, especially after Covid 19 and Sheikh Hasina’s disdain for political opponents.

Prelude

What started as a protest against 30 percent reservation for descendants of freedom fighters, precipitated into a wider revolt against the ruling dispensation marked by contentious and autocratic practices of governance. Interestingly, over the 15 years that Sheikh Hasina was in power since 2009, Bangladesh GDP had grown at 6.29 % from $100 bn to $460 bn in 2022. Its GDP per capita grew from $698 in 2009 to $2500 in 2023 surpassing that of India. Its exports (predominantly garments) tripled from $15.1 bn in 2009 to $54.7 in 2022. Poverty declined from 11.8% in 2010 to 5% in 2022 lifting nearly 30 million people out of poverty, and the country was to graduate from a least developed country to a developing one by 2026. Post independence in 1971, Bangladesh had as much as 80% reservation in government jobs which was reduced to 56% in 2012. Ironically, it was Sheikh Hasina who scrapped the 56% reservation in 2018 following nation-wide protests. This was restored by the High Court in June 2024 before protracted riots in July 2024 forced the Supreme Court intervention and reduction of percentage of reservation for descendants of freedom fighters to 5%. The mayhem however continued after a brief pause due to use of excessive force, extra judicial killings, enforced disappearances, deteriorating governance and complex interplay between economic performance and political challenges. This has thrown the economic trajectory into complete disarray.

The Author (in the centre) attending a Security Strategies discussion in Dhaka in 2019.

Role of Army

To say that the Army played an unobtrusive but a dominant role in Bangladesh politics would be an understatement. While it may be more overt and blatant in Pakistan, it is inconspicuous but assertive in Bangladesh. During a visit to the country in 2019, I learnt that eight Exclusive Economic Zones in the country were headed by serving or retired major generals. The Armed Forces Headquarters had a direct approach to the Prime Minister bypassing the entire bureaucracy and often got what they wanted. It is thus no surprise that it was the Army Chief who advised the deposed Prime Minister to leave the country before even she could make a final TV appearance having first refused to act against the protesters. Often within the same unit / establishment one could find officers of varying political, social, and religious orientation.

Prevailing Situation

A military backed 16 member care taker government was constituted under Chief Advisor Mohammad Yunus which resolved to undertake radical reforms in the fields of Judiciary, Constitution, Election Commission, Police, Administration and Anti-Corruption. It is a moot point how these reforms would be promulgated without an elected government. Since the unrest, there have been multiple attacks on places of worship, houses, and business of minority communities, especially Hindus. There are reports of ransom for celebrating Durga Puja, cancellation of national holidays linked to the liberation struggle, commemorating the death anniversary of Muhammad Ali Jinnah, absolving Pakistan of its genocidal war crimes, while at the same time vandalising structures of father of the nation Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. Lifting ban on JEI, display of flags akin to ISIS by elite college students and recognition of Hizb-ut Tahrir banned in 2009 as it stood for an Islamic caliphate of Bangladesh, portray a dangerous jingoism in the socio-political landscape of Bangladesh. It is also reported that judges of the Supreme Court allegedly owing allegiance to the Awami League have been deprived of conducting judicial functions in response to protests. The latest is the controversy surrounding the President’s statement on Sheikh Hasina’s resignation.

The country through a series of actions seems to be cosying up to Pakistan despite the atrocities perpetrated by it in the run up to 1971 liberation war. Statements on re-energising SAARC, an organization in cold storage due to Indo- Pak differences and outlandishly seeking nuclear agreement with Pakistan are part of an insidious agenda against perceived threats from India. It is intriguing why Bangladesh a more prosperous, modern, and secular democracy is warming up to Pakistan, a country afflicted by severe economic distress, security, and political turmoil.

Indo-Bangladesh Relations

Curiously, there have been intermittent Bangladeshi animosity towards India despite the latter having sacrificed over 3800 lives and 9800 wounded to secure its independence. There is no precedence in the world where a country has fought a full-fledged war to secure freedom for a neighbour and yet completely withdrawing with no territorial claims and even forfeiting strategic necessity of a secure corridor to its north eastern region, despite its perpetual vulnerability. India displayed magnanimity in reaching the land boundary agreement where it ceded control of over 111 Indian enclaves in exchange for 51 Bangladesh enclaves in 2015. The multiple rail and road connectivity projects on the anvil will immensely benefit Bangladesh besides Nepal, Bhutan, and India’s NE Region (under BBIN, a sub-regional grouping) by boosting trade and tourism. The Rooppur nuclear power plant under construction in Bangladesh, with assistance from India will significantly ameliorate its power situation. Even today, Bangladesh owes over $1bn to Indian power companies which have remained steadfast in supplying power despite eight to nine months of delay in payment of dues.

There are of course areas of dispute which are not unsurmountable. Chiefly; The Teesta River water issue, transborder smuggling of cattle, drugs and narcotics and migration. Bangladesh is also unhappy with India for not using its leverage to resolve the Rohingya issue with Myanmar. Politically motivated statements during elections with adverse reference to infiltration from Bangladesh has also ruffled feathers.

Way Ahead

India cannot afford to have another adversarial country with which it shares a 4096 km border. In the past our relations with Nepal suffered a setback consequent to the 2015 blockade and with Sri Lanka post the IPKF operations. However, of late, Indian diplomacy has been nuanced and displayed remarkable strategic patience, restraint, and maturity in harmonising relationship with Maldives. It reached out to Sri Lanka during its acute economic distress. What is imperative is to patiently await the current wave of anti-India sentiment to wither and a semblance of normalcy to return. The two-armed forces enjoy an excellent rapport which must be exploited to maintain communication and remove unnecessary suspicion against each other. Bangladesh is passing through a very sensitive social, political, and economic turbulence. India must consider non reciprocal economic assistance to Bangladesh as it has done with Sri Lanka. People to people engagements, cultural, educational and student exchanges must be facilitated. Sensitive issues like citizenship amendment act (including the recently passed Supreme Court Judgement on Article 6) and infiltration must be calibrated to mitigate misperceptions and detoxify people to people relationship. India and Bangladesh relations have made giant strides over the last 10 years. This strategic advantage must not be attenuated due to temporary upheavals in the neighbouring country.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Major General SC Mohanty, AVSM (Retd), was commissioned in June 1983. The officer commanded a Mechanised Infantry Battalion, a Mechanised Brigade and an Infantry Division (RAPID Strike) in the Western Sector. As a Brigade Major, he took active part in the Kargil Operations while located at Drass. As part of Military Operations Directorate, he headed the Information Warfare, Cyber and Electronic Warfare branches. Post retirement, he was the Security Advisor to Government of Arunachal Pradesh from July 2020 to May 2023.


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