India and the G7 Summit: Will G7 Become G8 Soon?

The 50th G7 Summit was organised in the southern Apulia region of Italy from 13th -15th June, 2024. In addition to the leaders of the G7 countries, Presidents of Ukraine as well as of the European Council and Commission also attended.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, the host of the Summit, invited several leaders from the Global South for an Outreach Summit on 14th June to discuss issues relating to Africa, the Mediterranean, the Indo-Pacific and Artificial Intelligence. Leaders from Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, India, Jordan, Kenya, Mauritania (as the Chair of the African Union), Tunisia, Türkiye and the United Arab Emirates participated.

Invitation to these developing countries was a recognition of the growing importance of the Global South in the corridors of power of world politics and economy. India was the first to focus on this issue by organising two Voice of the Global South Summits in the context of its Presidency of the G20 in 2023.

Prime Minister Modi, fresh after his third successive win in the national elections, participated in the Outreach Summit. This was his first foreign visit after being sworn in and became an occasion to underline the vitality of Indian democracy, establish contact with India’s principal partners from the developed and the developing world, and share India’s perspectives on the major global challenges and opportunities in the world.

The Setting

The G7 was launched in the early 1970s to focus on the major economic issues of the day including the oil crisis, the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, and the ongoing global recession. When it was first established, the G7 accounted for 70% of the Global GDP. Today that figure has shrunk to around 45% which, though lower than the original heft, continues to be quite significant. In addition to being developed and prosperous, the G7 is constituted around shared values of pluralism, liberal democracy, and representative government. Notwithstanding the fact that its share of the global economy has come down, the G7 countries continue to be major political, military and technological powers and exercise significant influence in important global institutions.

Although the economic heft of the newly minted and expanding groupings like the BRICS has been growing over the years, led chiefly by China and India, they are, in nominal dollar terms, nowhere close to challenging the dominance of G7 over the global economy. The original BRICS-5 accounted for a total GDP of US$ 27.72 trillion (IMF 2023 figures) which represents 26.1% of the world economy. As against this, the G7 account for a GDP of US$ 45.97 trillion which is 43.8% of the world economy. Even with the 5 new members, the nominal GDP of the 10-member BRICS rises to US$ 30.24 trillion, accounting for 28.9% of the global economy which still falls far short of the G7 countries. In terms of population, the BRICS-10 accounts for about 46% of the world population while the figure for G7 is just 10%. Per capita GDP of the G7 is hence much larger than that of BRICS nations.

Starting with the French invitation to Biarritz, in 2019, this was the fifth time in a row that PM Modi was invited to the G7 gathering. India shares considerable comfort level with the G7 countries. The G7 members and India are democracies with pluralistic societies, open trading system, with market economies having robust media, independent judiciary etc. India also enjoys close and strategic partnerships with all the G7 member states, barring Canada with whom there has been a spat in recent months.

India’s Growing Influence

The fifth invitation in a row to India for the G7 Summit is testimony to India’s growing clout and sway in global affairs. India has emerged as a partner of choice for most prominent members of the global community because of the effective manner in which it dealt with the Covid-19 pandemic in the health, economic and social sectors. Notwithstanding the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India has emerged today as the 5th largest economy in the world and is likely to become the third largest by the end of this decade, if not earlier. India is today the fastest growing major economy having registered an annual GDP growth of 8.2% last year. In the increasingly uncertain and turbulent global political and economic scenario, India is seen as a ray of hope for political and economic stability and dynamism.

India’s successful Presidency of the G20 confers on it a bigger role and voice to speak authoritatively on the way forward in resolving the problems of the world.

Today India has become an indispensable partner for global powers in finding solutions to some of the most critical challenges like climate change, terrorism, health, education, women empowerment, peace and security etc. confronting the world.

The Summit

In her opening address, PM Meloni said that southern Italy was chosen as a venue to deliver a strong message to the developing countries that the G7, under the Italian presidency, wished to strengthen its dialogue with the nations of the Global South. She said the region, situated between the world’s two major maritime areas, the Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific, had acted as a bridge between the East and West and as a land of dialogue. She laid emphasis on the need to find solutions to the ongoing crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, issues relating to Artificial Intelligence, Africa, migration, the Indo-Pacific, climate change and others.

In the final Communique, the G7 leaders stressed their determination to meet global challenges “at a crucial moment in history.” They reiterated their determination to stand in ‘’solidarity to support Ukraine’s fight for freedom and its reconstruction for as long as it takes.’’ They decided to make available US$50 billion to Ukraine to be paid from the interest on the US$350 billion Russian assets frozen in the western countries after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. They committed themselves to an ‘’immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the release of all hostages, and a credible pathway towards peace.’’ They affirmed their resolve to engage with Africa, promote the Sustainable Development Goals, reinforce global food security, enhance gender equality, actively ‘’address the triple crisis of climate change, pollution, and biodiversity loss, including by submitting ambitious 1.5°C aligned Nationally Determined Contributions,’’ expand cooperation to address migration, deepen cooperation to harness the benefits and manage the risks of Artificial Intelligence (AI), ‘’foster strong and inclusive global economic growth;’’ work together to ‘’promote economic resilience, confront non-market policies and practices that undermine the level playing field and our economic security, and strengthen our coordination to address global overcapacity challenges,’’ the last reference clearly being to China and its aggressive push to increase its exports. The leaders expressed deep concern at China’s support to Russia and called on Iran to stop assisting Russia’s war in Ukraine and not to transfer ballistic missiles and related technology.

Pope Francis made a historic appearance at the G7 Summit to talk about the benefits and drawbacks of artificial intelligence. The pope said that AI represented an “epochal transformation” for mankind, but stressed the need for close oversight of the ever-developing technology to preserve human life and dignity. He said that politicians must ensure that AI remains human-centric so that decisions about when to use weapons or even less-lethal tools always remain with the humans and not machines.

PM Modi’s visit

At the commencement of his visit PM Modi recalled ‘’PM Meloni’s two visits to India last year which were instrumental in infusing momentum and depth into our bilateral agenda.’’ He reasserted his determination ‘’to consolidating the India-Italy strategic partnership and bolster cooperation in the Indo-Pacific and the Mediterranean regions.’’

In his Address to the Outreach Session, PM Modi emphasised India’s four key principles for energy — availability, accessibility, affordability, and acceptability. He asserted that India will place the ‘’priorities and concerns of the countries of the Global South on the world stage. We have given high priority to Africa in these efforts. We are proud that the G-20, under India’s chairmanship, made the African Union a permanent member. India has been contributing to the economic and social development, stability and security of all African countries, and will continue to do so.” He committed that India will collaborate with all countries to ensure Artificial Intelligence is transparent, fair, secure, accessible, and responsible. He highlighted India’s human-centric approach, noting it was one of the first countries to create a national AI strategy, leading to the launch of the “AI Mission” with the mantra “AI for All.” He emphasised that this technology should be aimed at fostering progress and well-being of all. PM Modi added that India was ‘’the first country to meet all its COP commitments ahead of time and is working hard to reach “Net Zero” by 2070. India has also started “Mission LiFE” (Lifestyle For Environment) and launched the “Ek Ped Maa Ke Naam” (One tree in the name of the mother) initiative on June 5, Environment Day.’’

Bilateral Meetings

During his visit, PM Modi engaged in structured, bilateral meetings with the Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, French President Emmanuel Macron, British PM Rishi Sunak and Ukrainain President Volodymyr Zelensky. On the side-lines of the Summit, he also interacted with US President Joe Biden, Pope Francis, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Jordan’s King Abdullah II bin Al-Hussein, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres.

In PM Modi’s meeting with PM Meloni, the leaders called for expanding commercial ties in clean energy, manufacturing, Space, S&T, telecom, AI and critical minerals to build resilient supply chains. They discussed bilateral defence and security cooperation and called for an early implementation of the Migration and Mobility Agreement, which would facilitate mobility of professionals, skilled and semi-skilled workers, students, and researchers.

In the interaction with President Macron, the two leaders focussed on the ‘Horizon 2047’ Roadmap and the Indo-Pacific Roadmap. They discussed cooperation in defence, nuclear, space, education, climate action, digital public infrastructure, connectivity and cultural initiatives such as the National Museum partnership and enhancing people-to-people ties. They agreed to further intensify strategic defence cooperation with increased focus on ‘Make in India’. They agreed to expand cooperation in the realms of AI, critical and emerging technologies, energy and sports, while working closely in context of the forthcoming AI Summit and United Nations Oceans Conference, both to be hosted in France in 2025.

With PM Sunak, discussions were held on implementation of the Roadmap 2030 and the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership including regular high level political consultations, defence and security, trade and economic collaboration, critical and high technology sectors and people-to-people ties. They expressed satisfaction with the progress in the bilateral Free Trade Agreement negotiations.

In the meeting with President Zelensky, the two leaders discussed ways to strengthen bilateral relations. PM stated that India would continue to do everything within its means to support a peaceful solution.

Upon the conclusion of his visit, PM Modi stated that he along with the world leaders aimed to ‘’create impactful solutions that benefit the global community and create a better world for future generations.’’

Can G7 become G8 with inclusion of India?: The fifth consecutive invitation to India to the G7 Summits and India’s rapidly growing economy has given rise to speculation that India could soon receive an invitation to become the 8th member of the Grouping. This is highly unlikely. Although India is the 5th largest economy in the world, soon to become the 3rd largest economy, its per capita income continues to be very low at around US$2,000. The per capita GDP of the G7 countries is around US$50-80,000. There is a huge mismatch between the two.

India is a rapidly advancing, developing country and has emerged as an important and effective voice of the Global South. This is its natural constituency and habitat for the time being till it becomes a developed country. It will not be appropriate for it to jump ship and try to become a constituent of the G7.

By staying out of the G7 and yet participating in its annual sessions, India is able to project its own concerns and priorities, as well as of the developing countries. It would not be able to fulfil this role if it were to become a full member of this developed country Club.

The current, existing arrangement in which India has emerged as a quasi-permanent invitee to the G7 Summits is a win-win situation for both India and G7 countries as well as the large number of developing countries whose interests and concerns India espouses at these and other important international fora. The existing format ensures that while India is not a de-jure constituent of the G7, its regular presence at the Summits makes it a de-facto participant in all their significant Summit level deliberations.

India’s presence at the G7 Summits is also beneficial to India as well as the G7 states because of the opportunity it provides to India and G7 countries to expand their partnerships in the area of trade, investment, security, technology etc. All the G7 countries are significant partners of India in its quest to become ‘’viksit’’, a developed nation, by 2047.

Conclusion

Notwithstanding the fact that the economic heft of the G7 states has diminished somewhat over the last 50 years, they continue to be very important and influential in fields of economy, trade, investment, technology, security, countering terrorism, promoting education, health, combatting climate change etc. It is hence imperative for India to maintain close and vibrant contacts with these countries, both at bilateral as well as at multilateral level.

As a result of the successful policies pursued by it in dealing with the recent wars and challenges that the world is confronting, India’s influence and stature has risen considerably. India has emerged in recent years as a bridge between the developing Global South as well as the Developed North, as also as a link between the conflicting parties of USA and Europe in the West and Russia in the East. India as a rapidly growing economy and with increasing clout and sway in global affairs, fulfils, through its participation in the G7 Summits, a very important role in promoting peace, security and economic development in the world.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar is Executive Council Member, Mahohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses; President, Institute of Global Studies; Distinguished Fellow, Ananta Aspen Centre, and former Ambassdor of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia.

 


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