Impact of Trump Victory on Indo-U.S. Relations

The recent elections in the U.S. have had a dramatic impact on the internal alignments within U.S. domestic politics as well on the US stance in geopolitics. This article attempts to explore the implications for India, both with the lens of the impact of figures of Indian origin at both federal and state levels, as well as the implications of the Trump administration’s likely geopolitical policies on India.

Representation in US Legislative and executive Branches

With every U.S. election there is growing political engagement of the Indian-American community. Even though the overall numbers of elective representatives are not as significant as in other countries, such as Canada or the UK, the impact is greater than the raw numbers indicate. Below is an overview of the emerging leaders in both major parties, and prospects for the collective “Samosa Caucus”:

Democratic Party

Indian-American Democrats continue to dominate the Republicans in terms of legislative representation and influence. Its high-profile members include:

  • Ro Khanna (CA): Known for his progressive stance on economic justice, tech policy, and U.S.-India relations. His voice is amplified as the representative of the Silicon Valley in Congress and he is seen as a balanced and authoritative voice on the controversies that arise in that crucial sector. He has a political pedigree that has its roots in Indian politics – his grandfather, Amarnath Vidyalankar, was a freedom fighter and Lok Sabha member from Chandigarh.
  • Pramila Jayapal (WA): A leading voice in the progressive wing, chairing the Congressional Progressive Caucus. With the Democrats in a minority, the Progressive Caucus is likely to be in the cross hairs of the new administration while also representing the most ideologically divergent opposition to the MAGA positions of the incoming administration.
  • Raja Krishnamoorthi (IL): Focused on bipartisan issues such as education and anti-corruption and also becoming a strong interlocutor on both domestic and global issues from the ever-narrowing middle ground in American politics.

India USA turn-around in Last Decade

  • Bilateral trade has surged from $20 billion in 2000 to $195 billion in 2023 while defence trade has jumped from zero to $24 billion during the same period. Two-way trade is expected to cross the $200 billion mark in 2024.
  • The number of Indian students in the US has increased from just 54,664 in 2000 to over 330,000 in 2023, while the population of the Indian diaspora is now over five million from 1.9 million in 2000.
  • The Biden-Harris administration appointed a record number of 130 Indian Americans to senior positions.
  • India today is the top military exercise partner of the US.
  • The US is the biggest source of remittances to India.
  • A fifth of unicorns in the US have Indian migrants as founders or co-founders.

Their collective inputs will be especially significant in debates within the Democratic Party, especially on immigration reform, healthcare, and technology regulation, and will emerge as the talking points for the Democratic opposition.

Also, in the mix at the state level are the following:

  • Shri Thanedar (MI): Recently elected as the first Indian-American congressman from Michigan, Thanedar has a strong story of immigrant success and appeals to working-class voters.
  • Aruna Miller (MD): Maryland’s Lieutenant Governor is the first Indian-American woman elected to a statewide executive role, representing a milestone for Indian-American women in politics.
  • Neil Makhija: A lawyer and advocate, Makhija leads organizations that mobilize South Asian voters and could emerge as a future political candidate.

Republican Party

Indian-Americans in the Republican Party remain fewer in terms of numbers in the legislative branch but are gaining in prominence in all echelons of Republican politics as the diaspora diversifies in its political affiliations. Ad this trend could be amplified based on the policies and pronouncements of the incoming administration and of Donald Trump himself, including the personal equation he projects with Narendra Modi.

Several figures in the Republican Party have also been given prominent executive roles in the incoming administration:

Vivek Ramaswamy: (entrepreneur and 2024 Republican primary candidate) while not currently in any elective position, has a national following and is bringing Indian-American perspectives to the GOP while advocating for aligning with the MAGA nationalism and tough social “anti-woke” policies. His policy ideas focus on economic deregulation, and U.S. self-reliance in critical industries. And given his co-responsibilities, with Elon Musk, in the emergent Department of Government Efficiency, he has the potential to have high visibility and impact. But equally a failure in the role could scuttle his carefully crafted political identity. His nationalist stance and opposition to China could align with India’s strategic goals, particularly in countering Beijing. However, his domestic focus might limit direct contributions to Indo-U.S. bilateral ties. Given his relative youth, he could well emerge as a powerful power broker in the party as well as a future member of the Senate from Ohio.

Kash Patel: his rise to be the nominee to head the FBI has been truly meteoric and he is possibly the candidate most vulnerable to challenge in the senatorial vetting process. Patel has been a key Trump ally and former Pentagon official, who played a significant role in defence and intelligence policy during Trump’s first term and belongs in the inner circle. If confirmed, he would potentially advocate for deepening U.S.-India defence cooperation, particularly in counterterrorism and Indo-Pacific strategies.

Tulsi Gabbard: Although not Indian-American, Gabbard’s Hindu faith and strong ties to the Indian-American community make her a cultural and diplomatic link. Her basic non-interventionist foreign policy views align with Trump’s scepticism of endless wars. Some of her prior initiatives especially with the Bashar regime in Syria were controversial; but if confirmed, she could be his personal eyes and ears in the various branches of the US intelligence community often seen as suspect in the eyes of those who target the “deep state”. Gabbard has consistently supported stronger U.S.-India ties, advocating for India’s role in counterterrorism and as a democratic counterweight to China. Her presence could foster greater cultural and strategic alignment between the two nations.

The growing significance of the Indian voice in US politics can be gauged by the growing prominence of the informal “Samosa Caucus,” comprising of members of Congress with an Indian connection. Members of the caucus have already shaped debates on immigration reform, U.S.-India relations, healthcare, and tech innovation. As the numbers increase, their ability to push for bipartisan policies may strengthen. By bridging progressive and moderate platforms, the caucus could play a strong role in bringing bipartisan support to policies impacting India.

Geopolitical Alignment and impact on India

We turn next to the larger impact of a Trump administration on the geopolitical environment and its implications for India. Donald Trump has demonstrated in his pre-inauguration moves a willingness to take on almost any aspect of the established order – as his comments on the status of Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal revealed. His basic America First stance has major ramifications for the multilateral political and economic institutions including global institutions like the UN, WHO, World Bank, NATO, and the U.S. dollar’s role as the global reserve currency. Here’s an analysis of likely trends:

Fragmentation of Multilateralism:

Trump’s “America First” ideology emphasizes bilateralism over multilateralism, potentially weakening the global multilateral system that emerged out of the Second World War and was amended and reinforced by the competition of the Cold War. With the ending of the Cold War, the logic of multilateralism has been eroding and Trump’s ascent could mark a further critical stage in the evolution. Trump’s scepticism of global institutions could further undermine multilateral governance. His policies might encourage a universal transactional, zero-sum approach to diplomacy.

  • Reduced U.S. Funding could be the most direct way to impact the multilateral bodies. During his previous term, Trump cut contributions to global bodies (e.g., WHO) and questioned the value of funding institutions perceived as inefficient or biased. Another vehicle could be through using its economic clout to tamper with the recruitment practices of the agencies precipitating a legitimacy and effectiveness crisis.
  • World Bank/IMF: Trump’s administration was critical of lending practices, particularly those benefiting China. U.S. influence in these institutions may decrease if his policies become more isolationist.

Rethinking NATO and Security Alliances

  • Burden-Sharing: Trump has consistently demanded NATO members increase their defence spending. A second term could see heightened tensions with European allies. Though unlikely, the possibility of the U.S. scaling back or even withdrawing from NATO could resurface, just the threat of which could upend world strategic status quo. Also, by extension of the same logic, he is unlikely to have enthusiasm for putting resources to reinforce the Quad alliance.
  • Global Security Impact: Reduced U.S. commitment to NATO and other alliances could embolden adversaries like Russia and China, destabilizing the global security architecture.

U.S. Dollar and Macroeconomic Policy

Currency supremacy represents an area where Trump’s views have been consistently hawkish. He has specifically avowed his desire to reinforce the US Dollar’s status as the exclusive global reserve currency; most recently threatening crippling tariffs if the BRICS countries contemplated de-dollarizing or launching their own reserve currency

  • The threat of tariffs and trade wars has been a recurrent theme in his economic policy pronouncements. Professional opinion among economists is divided on the scope of the tariffs or their impact on broad macroeconomic variables or even if they are compatible with the goals of quelling inflation or spurring investment: But he seems as determined to exercise economic power as he seems reluctant to exercise military power. And the maintenance of the dollar as a safe-haven asset seems to be an overriding priority.
  • Trump’s unilateralism could accelerate moves by China, Russia, and others to de-dollarize trade and financial systems, as seen in efforts like the BRICS currency initiative referred to above. But these initiatives would be difficult to accomplish in the face of stringent opposition from the US

Specific impact on bilateral U.S.-India Relations

Trade & Defence: Under Trump’s previous administration, there was an emphasis on strengthening U.S.-India ties, especially in defence and economic cooperation. Indians might expect continuity in areas like defence partnerships and the Indo-Pacific strategy with the caveats about the willingness to participate in multilateral partnerships like the Quad noted above.

Tariffs and Trade Policies: Trump’s protectionist trade stance analysed above could impact India in complex and difficult to predict ways. There could be a return to negotiations over tariffs, which might affect Indian exports like pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT services. But a recalibrate its stance on trade policy with China, could potentially benefit India strategically by opening new trade and investment opportunities. But it is too early to say. U.S. investments into India’s technology and manufacturing sectors could either grow or face barriers depending on trade negotiations and bilateral relations.

Legal Immigration Policies H-1B Visas: Indians in the U.S. or planning to migrate for work might be concerned about stricter visa policies, as Trump’s administration previously tightened H-1B regulations and has been parsimonious in supporting legal immigration together with a vigorous opposition to illegal immigration, a corner of his campaign.

Diaspora Concerns and Community Safety: Indian Americans will remain vigilant about potential upticks in xenophobic rhetoric or actions, as such issues have been a concern in previous years and Trump’s campaign rhetoric could foment animus and hostility against all visible immigrant groups. This could have broad ramifications including the willingness of students and tech professionals to move to the US, which have been a cornerstone of the enlarging partnership between the two countries.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Kanwarjit Singh is a physician working in the biotech sector in Southern California. Prior to that he worked at McKinsey and the Gates Foundation and has degrees in Physics from St Stephen’s College, Delhi, Economics from Oxford, Business from MIT and Medicine from Columbia.

 


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