It is evident that the outcome of the polls in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir initially, and Maharashtra subsequently, would have an impact on national politics in general and the BJP in particular. The Saffron Brigade is actually on trial and after the Parliamentary polls where its numbers were reduced from 303 to 240, there is tremendous interest to ascertain whether the BJP would bounce back or slide further.
In Haryana where the BJP and its allies have been in power for a decade, there appears to be a strong anti-incumbency factor that is working. The efforts to polarize the votes between the dominant Jat community and others, do not seem to be successful. And if this Jat Versus non Jat contest does not happen on the ground, there are very few chances of the BJP performing a hattrick.
Apart from the usual issues such as unemployment and rising prices, the focus of the polls is on the catchy slogan of “Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan and Jai Pehalwan’’. This slogan symbolizes the anguish amongst people regarding the three issues which concerned the Central government and in the perception of most people remain unaddressed.
This is an emotional slogan and it is well known that elections in India are also influenced by passions that get flared up when the appropriate time comes. The Agniveer scheme has not gone down too well with the youth, who in this State like many others, see their future in the armed forces. The stadiums that used to be full of activity featuring young men running and preparing for the Army selection wear a deserted look. The net result is that the BJP has evidently distanced the youth from it by this contentious decision which many say was taken without much homework.
Equally significant is the ongoing agitation of the farmers in Haryana, Punjab and western Uttar Pradesh, which has alienated the common man from the government. These three regions have a very strong connect with the farming community and therefore the fallout of this decision may be seen in the Assembly polls. This issue is very pronounced in the rural areas, particularly areas bordering Punjab.
The agitation by wrestlers, most of whom come from Haryana so far as Olympic medal tally is concerned, is also seen to be a highly emotional matter. The general feeling is that the BJP in order to defend the former Wrestling Federation Chief, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh, did not pay enough heed to the demands of wrestlers, many of whom sat for days together at the Jantar Mantar in Delhi and were roughed up by the police.
There is also a strong bond the people have developed with Vinesh Phogat, the wrestler who was denied a medal due to technicalities but has endeared herself to the entire country. She is the Congress candidate from Julana in the Jind district and has evinced a lot of interest in the media as well.
The BJP is facing the election under the overall leadership of Nayeb Singh Saini, who was appointed the Chief Minister a few months ago, thereby replacing Manohar Lal Khattar, who is now a Union Minister. Saini’s elevation has rubbed many in the party the wrong way. Rao Inderjit Singh, Union Minister and a very influential leader in the Ahirwal region has questioned why he was overlooked for this position. Former Home Minister Anil Vij is equally upset and has also staked his claim. There are many senior leaders who have decided to sit at home and not participate in the polls.
Is Congress Much Better?
The Congress on the other hand appears to be buoyant with former CM, Bhupinder Singh Hooda spearheading the campaign. He is seen as the tallest Jat leader in the state but has wide acceptability in other communities as well. Yes, the Congress has its share of factionalism as well with Kumari Selja, the Lok Sabha MP from Sirsa having many reservations over how the tickets were distributed thereby ignoring the claims of many of her supporters. The High Command is trying to mend the fences but a lot would depend on the final outcome of the polls.
In Jammu and Kashmir, where elections are being held after more than 10 years, the mood is upbeat. The erstwhile State has witnessed a fairly high percentage of voting which indicates that there is people’s participation on a wide scale. Mohammed Sayed Malik, a veteran journalist who has witnessed every election in the region describes the current polls as the “most congested’’. This is in reference to the large number of contestants.
Many like him are of the view that after 1977, where Sheikh Abdullah was elected as the CM, this is one election which appears to be both free and fair. This is evident from the interest it has evoked, and the Centre also had allowed many diplomats and foreign observers to visit the erstwhile state to see things for themselves.
The BJP is fighting with its back to the wall in the Jammu region since it has none or marginal presence in Kashmir. However, things are not very easy for the Congress and the National Conference either which are in the fray as poll partners.
There are some important factors that have also emerged. For instance, the presence of Engineer Rashid, who has been in jail for the last several years and had defeated both Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone in the Parliamentary election, is making a lot of difference. He is viewed as the “X’’ Factor and enjoys the support of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami which is backing many independent candidates.
Engineer Rashid has a lot of influence in North Kashmir and is also making a difference in other parts including Central Kashmir where the Abdullahs were considered very strong at one time. Significantly, there is also an existential crisis for the PDP, which was largely dominant in Southern Kashmir but is struggling to get its nominees elected in the wake of desertion by a large number of its leaders.
Like everywhere, the bread and butter issues are there, but all this is in the backdrop of the hope the people have that the Statehood for the region would be restored. People do talk about the abrogation of Article 370 but know that this was irreversible and therefore would not be so much of any issue. Although the Central government claims that the law and order situation has improved, yet there is concern over the rising cases of terrorism which is evidently sponsored by our neighbouring country.
The elections to Haryana and J&K would also impact the polls in Maharashtra which would be held in November where the Maha Vikas Aghadi faces the incumbent Maha Yuti, which is a combination of the BJP and the breakaway groups of Shiv Sena and NCP. The Aghadi had done well in the Parliamentary polls and the alliance of Congress, Udhhav Thackeray faction of the Sena and Sharad Pawar faction of NCP, is seen as a formidable challenger.
Both the alliances are keeping their cards close to the chest and are waiting for the opportune moment to unfurl their strategy. In all likelihood, Uddhav Thackeray could be projected by the MVA as its CM face. It is the season of politics and there will be a lot more to see after these elections get over.
One more instance of make-or-break elections! Another phase of electioneering where the characters are in a do or die situation. Careers, fortunes, so much more, are at stake!Haryana is witnessing another infighting scare within the Congress. For the time being, joint rallies with Rahul have brought the warring sides together. The results will show the way; is it that simple, either the CM’s chair or nothing? Who has more say in the emerged assembly, will likely pave the way for a final selection. As has become the rule, within both BJP and the Congress, the high command will take a final call.
The elections in J&K are being said to be the fairest in many years! A tribute to the efforts of the Centre in recent years. That a dozen foreign diplomats were invited to witness the polling in Srinagar is an indication of the confidence all the concerned have. Not to mention the voter turnout, an impressive 60% plus, the highest seen in years. This is also the first election in ten years; much maturity and awareness has come around in the average voter.
– Editor
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Pankaj Vohra is a veteran journalist based in Delhi. A long time contributor to The Hindustan Times, he is presently writing for The Sunday Guardian.
