The many lessons that emerged from the war have resulted in reexamination of military doctrines and accelerating the pace of their battlefield and strategic adaptation.
Introduction
As the Russo-Ukrainian war approaches its third anniversary, the conflict is at a turning point. A visible sign being the cover of the latest issue of the Economist that carries an image unmistakably representative of the President Trump with his back turned. No one could have imagined this three years ago.
Last week’s Munich Security Conference marked that moment when the US told Europe emphatically that it could not rely on transatlantic support. No analyst or AI could have visualised these developments three years ago. But more telling is that a new security architecture is taking shape in Europe and the Europeans are being forced to look at their image in the mirror by the US.
President Donald Trump who had promised to end the war has already held a long telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin and the first negotiations have been held in Riyadh. Meanwhile the widening rift between President Trump and President Zelensky is evident. Trump denounced Zelensky as “a dictator without elections” and Zelensky said Trump was trapped in a Russian disinformation bubble, in response to the US President suggesting Ukraine started the war.
India and the War
India has been consistent in its stance regarding the war and the Prime Minister has reiterated time and again that this is not an era of war. The focus needs to be on dialogue and diplomacy and negotiations to end the war.
The Indian position has been described as “maintaining strategic autonomy,” meaning that India refused to side with the West. While it is part of Western alliance’s such as the QUAD it continued to buy weapons and oil from Russia. India abstained from several votes in the UNSC and General Assembly on the issue of censuring Russia for its unprovoked attack on Ukraine. It also abstained from resolutions brought in by the Russian side. India has walked a fine line, balancing its relationship with the West and with Russia, with whom it has deep historical and strategic ties.
In keeping with its balanced position and the Prime Minister has visited both Moscow and Kyiv stating that we stand on the side of peace. India has constantly emphasied its commitment to peaceful conflict resolution and maintaining cooperative relationships with both nations.
But at the same time the West has targeted India for its deep economic, defence and energy partnerships and strategic ties, friendship and dealings with Russia. But, India’s approach towards Western sanctions on Russia is driven by concerns over global market disruptions and the need to safeguard its own economic interest while maintaining its strategic flexibility. There is no doubt that with the current changes in US policy towards the conflict, India’s stand has been vindicated.
Implications of Peace Talks on India
For India the peace talks are very welcome. Conflict has many dimensions one of which is economic. The conflict has caused disruptions to supply chains, increased input costs, and reduced demands for exports. It has also led to increased uncertainty and volatility in the global economy.
In today’s interconnected world, irrespective of whether you are party to a conflict, an ongoing conflict has global implications regarding free flow of goods, supply chains and increase of costs of food, fuel and fertilizer. This leads to a volatility of prices, which, in turn leads to inflation and affects the strength of the Rupees which has suffered a significant fall since the conflict began.
Another industry which has been affected is tourism. The conflict and the subsequent sanctions on Russia have led to a decline in tourism from Russia. This has had a negative impact on businesses in the travel and hospitality industry.
In India’s case apart from these there is also a strong defence dimension to our relations with Russia. India’s dependence on Russia for defense is well documented, and represents the primary reason for its evergreen response to the Ukraine crisis. Over 70 percent of India’s defence inventory is attributed to Russia.
As a result of the war, spare parts were affected and delivery schedules of already ordered weapon systems such as the S 400 have been delayed. Incidentally, apart from Russia we also import gas turbine engines for warships from Ukraine and the upgrades of the AN 32 takes place there. In fact, the manufacturing facilities were targeted by Russian missiles which further delayed delivery schedules.
But once peace prevails and Russia is reintegrated into the global network with sanctions being lifted, the major implication is that India will now no longer be targeted for trading with Russia. This will permit India to buy crude oil from Russia, as well as buy weapon systems from Russia without the fear of imposition of Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).
Lessons That Have Emerged
The many lessons that emerged from the war have resulted in reexamination of military doctrines and accelerating the pace of their battlefield and strategic adaptation.
But a major lesson is that no war follows a planned trajectory. Or in the words of Field Marshal Molkte the Elder; ‘no plan survives contact with the enemy’.
The war has proven that drones, AI, and other kinds of advanced technology are important arbiters of success on the ground and in the air. The tentacles of technological insertions have enabled the meshing of AI, civil and military sensor networks, and the democratisation of battlefield information.
Technology was being used to defend and deter, to advance and strike and control and command. But often the speed of change was so fast that it was a challenge to understand, operationalize and use it effectively. This is going to be an increasing challenge.
Then there is the issue of mathematics of war. The US was forced to withdraw their costly M1A Abrams as these were being destroyed by cheaper Russian drones. Or consider using very expensive air defence systems as protection against drones that cost a fraction of that amount. These are all issues that need to be studied in greater detail.
But what stands out is that there is a need to develop hard power as a deterrence capability. The ultimate purpose of having strong armed forces is that you never have to use them. And for that apart from military structures, weapons systems, training, tactics, technology and doctrines building a robust defence industrial base backed both by research and development and manufacturing is essential. The fact is that in any conflict one stands alone. Hence the significance of Atmanirbhar.
Conclusion
Ceasefire is relatively easy but resolving issues where incompatible collisions of reality exist is challenging. When peace talks begin, they will be difficult and complex. While questions about territory will most likely be settled based on the captured territories, with the US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth terming Ukraine’s goals of recovering all its territory and NATO membership “unrealistic”. But Ukraine’s long-term security will be the sticking point.
India’s friendship with Russia is essential for its strategic security due to being surrounded by hostile neighbors Pakistan and China. India had no option but to put its energy security, economic well-being, and defence interests above the wishes of the US and its allies regarding Ukraine. Following the talks between US and Russia regarding the Ukraine War it is felt that the US will now be understanding of India’s unique situation of balancing its relationship with both Russia and the US. India has done well to recognize the pitfalls of failure into pre-determined slots that most were forced into. The success of our foreign policy must be appreciated.
Unfortunately, the complexities of this conflict preclude quick solutions. But regardless of the outcome of the negotiations, the war in Ukraine has already changed the character of conflict around the world. Countries now need to adapt to the new realities on the battlefield. However, the credibility of the global policymakers now depends on how soon and in what manner this war ends.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Major General Jagatbir Singh VSM, (Retd), has held various command, staff and instructional appointments and served in varied terrains in the country. He has served in a United Nations Peace Keeping Mission as a Military Observer in Iraq and Kuwait. He has been an instructor to Indian Military Academy and the Defence Services Staff College, Wellington. He has commanded the prestigious 1 Armoured Division. He is a prolific writer in defence& national security and is a Distinguished Fellow at USI.
