It is intriguing how India has presumably slipped (if at all) from being the darling of the developed World and the leader of Global South to being diplomatically cold shouldered in the run up to and post Operation Sindoor. Prime Minister Narendra Modi since his first term in 2014, made an extensive and concerted outreach to the regional and global audience to not only shape but refresh the world opinion about India. As of June 2025 he has embarked on 89 foreign trips including multiple visits to the US (10 times), France (8 times) China (5 times) Germany ( 6 times) and Japan, Russia and UAE ( 7 times each) amongst others. He has been able to develop a personal rapport with many world leaders. As per Morning Consult data of Jun 25, his approval rating were at 76%, highest amongst global leaders. President Donald Trump called him a fantastic and magnificent person, carrying forward the “Howdy Modi” euphoria of his first term. Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden felt like taking Modi’s autograph. President Putin opined that Modi cannot be intimidated to make decisions except in India’s national interest. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni felt Modi as the most loved leader in the world ( at G7 summit in Jun 2025, she said “you are the best” and “I am trying to be as you”) and the erstwhile Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called him the boss. The Mexican President proposed a peace commission comprising of Pope Francis, PM Modi and the UN Secretary General; due to their leadership and moral authority, to resolve World conflicts through dialogue and truce. PM Modi has been conferred with the highest number of civilian awards by an unprecedented 19 countries( including by Cyprus in Jun 25) cutting across continents extending from West Asia to US, France, Pacific Islands and Russia. The G20 Summit held at Delhi in 2023 was a roaring success despite the increasingly polarised World; including African Union as a member and extracting a Leaders Declaration to advance a comprehensive agenda for sustainable development, inclusive growth and global cooperation. India reached out to over 96 countries for distribution of COVID-19 vaccines while many Western nations not only withheld vaccine formulas due to intellectual property protections and commercial interests but also reserved a disproportionate portion of the vaccines for their own population. India reached out to regional countries like Sri Lanka and Maldives during their economic distress with liberal loans and grants.
Why is it then that India has not been able to garner the expected support for its stand against terrorism and Operation Sindoor, launched post the Pahalgam terror attack with glaring Pakistan complicity, when the Resistance Front, an offshoot of Lashkar-e-Taiba took responsibility. Many analysts have attributed this to India’s inability to dominate the information domain either in the lead up to, during and post the strikes vis a vis Pakistan. It thus became expedient for India to designate seven groups of parliamentarians to visit 32 countries to present India’s stance and highlight Pakistan’s role in cross-border terrorism. Weather this exercise has achieved its designed objective except eliciting symbolic and conciliatory statements, is a moot point.
The reason for this unfathomable Global diplomatic turnaround could be many. One; post the Donald Trump phenomena in the US; increasing exclusivity, isolationism and realignments based on security and extant economic interests drive global geopolitics sans conventions eliciting predictable expectations. It is not to say that international relations were not transactional in the past; but these seem to be more overtly and aggressively nuanced to address immediate challenges/threats. Many countries are not wanting to provoke the US by not aligning with its altered strategy, pending their respective trade deals. Trump’s foreign policy is demonstratively driven by its economic interests including the cryptocurrency deal and investment in the lucrative mineral sector in Pakistan(Baluchistan) and Ukraine, occupation of Greenland, Canada and even the corridor between Bangladesh and Myanmar. Pakistan due to its geostrategic location continues to be of value to the US; no matter its irrefutable links to terror outfits; to further its long term interests as regards Iran, Afghanistan and China. The luncheon meeting between President Trump and Field Marshal Asif Munir (Not the Pakistan PM), following the CENTCOM chief terming Pakistan as a phenomenal partner, only goes to substantiates this duplicity.
Two; the stunning magnitude of military retribution by India targeting strategic military and terror infrastructure deep inside Pakistan may have been perceived by many as outrageous by a country thus far hesitant, docile and restrained, without diplomatic consensus and sharing compelling evidence of Pakistan’s complicity. Uncontested endorsement would legitimise such responses in the future. The strikes not only smothered Chinese and Western military equipment but also demonstrated India’s superior military potential even in the shadow of nuclear brinkmanship. Arguably, India would now extract its share in the monopolistic global arms bazar.
Three; having grudgingly conceded to India’s strategic autonomy and decision making in the Russia-Ukraine and West Asia conflicts, continuing oil imports from Russia and abstaining from explicitly condemning Russia in multiple UN resolutions as also the resolution for ceasefire in Gaza; the military assertiveness against a nuclear armed neighbour only enviably consolidates India’s position in the Global power matrix. This is not without drawing ire of status quo powers.
Four; Notwithstanding India’s increasing bonhomie with countries in West Asia, Pakistan continues to be a vital member of the Islamic world and is likely to continue to receive financial and ideological support. Further, Chinese collaborative support and its influence in the multilateral institutions only complicated India’s diplomatic position.
How should India navigate through this complex geopolitical quagmire. The World is likely to believe what it wants to and not what it is told to. Should India be unduly ruffled about what other’s think about its actions, which is driven by its core national interests?
Indo-US Relations
The Indo-US relations have witnessed a robust upward trajectory over the last two decades with signing of four foundational agreements that enhance bilateral military cooperation, interoperability and information sharing including the General Security of Military Information Agreement(GSOMIA) 2002, Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement(LEMOA) 2016, Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement(COMCASA) 2018 and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement(BECA) 2020. India’s military cooperation with the US has significantly deepened over the past two decades marked by major defence acquisitions and joint exercises. Major purchases include C-130(12, $2.1bn), C-17 Globemaster(11, $4.1bn), AH-64E Apache Attack Helicopters(28, $3.1bn), CH-47F Chinook Heavy lift Helicopters(15, $1.5bn), M777 Ultra-light Howitzers(145, $750 mn) and P8I Maritime Surveillance Aircraft(12, $3bn). The ongoing purchases include Predator MQ-9B drones, GE F404 and F414 engines for Tejas Mk1 and Mk2 jets. Between 2000-2025, US defence exports to India exceed $22bn simultaneously reducing Russian share from 70-75% to around 50% despite the S400 and other purchases in the pipeline. The last few days of Biden administration witnessed MOUs on Cyber Crime, removal of US export restrictions on Indian nuclear entities and reaffirmation on initiatives on Critical and Emerging Technologies(iCET); none of which have been rescinded, substantiating bipartisan support to enhance Indo-US strategic partnership. The 2025 US National Defence Strategic Guidance mentions China as the “sole pacing threat” and India as a “linchpin partner”. The recent aggressive posturing including statements such as “Tariff King”, threatening Tim Cook against manufacturing I phones in India(as also Tesla), delay in supply of GE 404 engines and the bizarre statement of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick; “India purchase of military equipment from Russia and membership of BRICS is rubbing the US the wrong way and getting under the skin of America”, only smacks of diplomatic immaturity and arrogance. It could well be part of exerting maximum pressure before a favourable to US trade deal. As per Moody, the US tariffs wouldn’t substantially impact India’s 18% exports due to its large domestic economy, low dependence on exports and robust services sector. The $44 billion trade deficit with India is premised on false data since US enjoys a $82-85 billion trade surplus in services including education, technology sector, banking, pharmaceutical patents and automobiles. During the telephonic call on 17 June 25, PM Modi unequivocally called out President Trump on his misleading remarks on mediation, trade talks and approach to terrorism in the future. While good relations with US is imperative, it ought to be based on mutual respect, mutual interests, appreciation of India’s sensitivities and bereft of pressure tactics. The recalcitrant behaviour may be a passing phase. India must nuance trade talks and defence deals with the US without compromising domestic defence industry, the pharma and MSME sectors.
Indo-China Relations
The conciliatory statements of Chief of Defence Staff regarding Chinese patronage to Pakistan during Operations Sindoor notwithstanding, China provided extensive support to Pakistan in terms of battlefield surveillance, deployment of Chinese satellites to monitor Indian military assets besides hard kill resources eg PL 15 missiles, JF 17, JF 10 C and HQ 9/HQ 16 AD weapon systems. While the standoff along the LAC was cooled off after the October 24 meeting between PM Modi and Xi Jinping; followed by Jan 2025 meeting between the foreign ministers and foreign secretaries, the suspicion and trust deficit persists, mandating incessant deployment of additional troops on either side. To make matters worse, China renamed 27 places in Arunachal Pradesh(fifth list since 2017) in May 2025 after it intervened to omit naming The Resistance Front ( UN 1267) from UNSC statement in Apr 25. Trade stress has forced both sides to make incremental concessions though China continues to hold back rare earth magnets insisting on end-user certification, severely impacting electric automobiles. China will also be smarting from the failure of its equipment in Pakistan during the 88 hour air skirmish both on the ground and in the air. There is internal turmoil within Chinese Communist Party and reports of a likely change of leadership. It is afflicted by economic slowdown, unemployment, demographic decline and the increasing militarisation of Indo-Pacific forcing recasting its security, border diplomacy, tech and industrial policy and market reforms as enunciated in China’s National Security in the New Era of May 2025. India will have to calibrate its strategy along the LAC while continuing trade and other areas of strategic convergence, till alternatives especially, intermediaries in pharmaceuticals and rare earths are found.
Indo-Russia Relations
Despite the long standing relationship between India and Russia and especially India’s unequivocal support during the ongoing Russia- Ukraine war, Russia’s subdued support is particularly disheartening. It may have more to do with resetting its relations with the US and constrained dependence on China due to the war in Ukraine. It is time India conveys its disquiet subtly that its support can’t be taken for granted.
The Troubled Neighbourhood
The neighbourhood has been in persistent turmoil. While India has reached out to Sri Lanka and Maldives in the times of their economic distress, the unelected advisor to the government of Bangladesh has left no stone unturned to poke India in the eye with greater alignment towards China and Pakistan. The situation in Myanmar continues to remain delicate and fluid with both China and the US trying to fish in troubled waters. The pro-democracy movement in Nepal is gathering momentum to the discomfiture of an already fragile government under KP Sharma Oli. A multifaceted, inclusive, generous, non-reciprocal, country specific and mutually beneficial approach will assist India in remaining ahead of the curve.
Internal Challenges
There are multiple internal issues which have the potential to be exploited by inimical foreign elements and prevent a united approach towards key foreign policy initiatives. The situation in Manipur continues to be volatile despite the President’s rule since Feb 25. Political differences tend to compromise our assertive position in the international arena besides providing leverage to our adversaries to question our credibility. Multiple cases of espionage related to Operation Sindoor, derailment of trains in the recent past, overground workers in J&K, spread of antinational narrative via Chinese app RedNote needs to be handled with maturity and firmness.
Summation
The situation calls per national unity and bipartisan support for key foreign policy objectives. Relations with China and Pakistan (which is likely to continue a diffused and deniable strategy) is unlikely to alter substantially even in the medium term. We can neither afford to be surprised by another Galwan nor plan to fight the next skirmish with Pakistan on the lines of Operations Sindoor. Investment in national security is more urgent than it has ever been in the past. Defence expenditure will have to be nuanced on a dynamic and capability based approach even if it means 3% or 4% of the GDP since all other indicators of growth and prosperity is inherently linked to security of the nation. India must strengthen internal stability, forging strategic partnerships and engaging in nuanced diplomacy. Recalibrating strategic autonomy, securing energy and resource sovereignty, expanding defence capabilities and nurturing economic resilience hold the key. Let it be absolutely clear that India has arrived at the world stage as an independent, assured, ambitious and proud nation with military and economic heft, which is only silently recognised, applauded and admired. It will remain a threat to those whose influence it will consequentially erode. Pakistan will continue to be prioritised because of its geography. Its chaos and instability provides opportunity for exploitation by insidious powers.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Major General SC Mohanty, AVSM (Retd), was commissioned in June 1983. The officer commanded a Mechanised Infantry Battalion, a Mechanised Brigade and an Infantry Division (RAPID Strike) in the Western Sector. As a Brigade Major, he took active part in the Kargil Operations while located at Drass. As part of Military Operations Directorate, he headed the Information Warfare, Cyber and Electronic Warfare branches. Post retirement, he was the Security Advisor to Government of Arunachal Pradesh from July 2020 to May 2023.
