On 2nd July 2025, ahead of his 90th birthday, His Holiness the Dalai Lama declared (as promised by him in a message in 2011) that the institution of Dalai Lama will continue. The Gaden Phodrang Trust, his spiritual institution established in 2011, has the sole authority to recognise the future reincarnation sans any outside interference. It is apparent that the Dalai Lama utilised the intervening period for consultation with his followers and written opinions from wider Buddhist community.
This set to rest the speculation surrounding the reincarnation of the 14th Dalai Lama since 2004, when his holiness vacillated between ‘no further reincarnation, Dalai Lama from India/Mangolia, possibility of a woman Dalai Lama, scenario of no Dalai Lama at all and his reincarnate to be born outside China in a free country’.
This was soon followed by the statement of Kiran Rijiju, Indian Minister of Parliamentary Affairs, himself a practicing Buddhist, that only the Dalai Lama and his institution have the authority to decide his reincarnation and no one else has the right. He later clarified that the statement was made in his personal capacity as a devotee and not on behalf of the Government of India. Expectedly, the Chinese ministry of foreign affairs rebuffed the declaration of Dalai Lama stating that the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, the Panchen Lama and other great Buddhist figures must be chosen by drawing lots from a Golden Urn, a Qing dynasty era method and approved by the Central Government. The Chinese ambassador in India reiterated that the reincarnation system has existed for over 700 years and Dalai Lama had no authority to abolish or continue the system.
China labelled the issue “a thorn in bilateral ties” and any interference in the practices of Dalai Lama would be “shooting oneself in the foot”. On its part, the Government of India distanced itself from the statement of Rijiju, underlining it’s religious neutrality and that the Government of India does not take any position or speak on matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion.
In the backdrop of unpredictable and wavering trajectory of India-China relations – from the border clash in June 2020 to a detente following the interaction between Prime Minister Modi and President Xi Jinping in October 2023 and disengagement along the volatile Line of Actual Control(LAC), followed by support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor, undeclared restrictions on export of rare earth magnets and fertilisers and fresh naming of places in Arunachal Pradesh, questions are being raised whether India’s stand on the Dalai Lama issue has been consistent and pragmatic and has India unwittingly discarded the Dalai Lama Card against China as a bargaining chip.
Instances of Support to Buddhist Conclaves, where The Dalai Lama has participated
Ever since the 14th Dalai Lama fled Lhasa and was granted political asylum in India following military crackdown by PLA and signing of the 17 point agreement under duress, India has hosted Tibetan refugees which is currently assessed to be around 1,00,000. The Tibetan government in exile has been functioning in Dharamsala since May 1960, holding periodic elections and has been playing a significant role in Tibetan affairs since 2011, when Dalai Lama voluntarily handed over his political and administrative powers to a democratically elected Tibetan Leadership. India’s has often walked a tight rope on the Tibetan issue, balancing its strategic and domestic interests while managing its complex relationship with China. There have been several instances where India appeared to leverage the Tibet Card especially during heightened tension with China. These range from symbolic gestures to diplomatic concessions falling short of official recognition of Tibetan independence.
India facilitated Dalai Lama’s visit to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh seven times since 1983. The visits in 2009 and 2017 particularly drew strong diplomatic backlash from China warning of serious damage to bilateral ties. This is especially significant since Tawang is at the very core of Chinese claim over Arunachal Pradesh with its linkage to Lhasa, the spiritual and cultural capital of Tibetan Buddhism. The Dalai Lama was at times provided with military aircrafts to make multiple visits to Ladakh, Tawang and Sikkim for religious teachings. India asserted that Dalai Lama being a religious figure was free to travel within India.
Following the border stand-off in Ladakh in 2020, PM Modi wished the Dalai Lama on his birthday in 2021, hitherto considered a taboo. The gesture has continued ever since.
India has permitted foreign dignitaries to visit Dharamshala and meet the Dalai Lama, including Nancy Pelosi, the speaker in US House of Representatives, delegations from European parliament, Canada, Germany and Japan. In June 2024, a bipartisan US congressional delegation led by Michael McCaul met the Dalai Lama following the passage of Tibetan Policy and Support Act. The US Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs met the Dalai Lama on his 90th birthday on 06 July 25. These visits have enabled global spotlight on the ‘Tibetan Cause’ riling the Chinese.
Over the years, there have been calls within India to award Bharat Ratna to the Dalai Lama recognising his global stature and political role.
Members of the Central Tibetan Administration (CTA) in exile have been invited to interfaith forums, Buddhist conferences and think tanks (including Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis and India Foundation), discussions on China and Tibet. They have been permitted to organise events, meet Indian leaders and host foreign delegates indicating de-facto autonomy. Several MPs, former ministers across parties attend CTA programmes including Tibet Democracy Day and Dalai Lama awards.
In April 2023, India sponsored the Global Buddhist Summit organised by International Buddhist Confederation themed “ Responses to Contemporary Challenges: Philosophy to Praxis” attended by the Dalai Lama and prominent Tibetan clergy and monks. Attendance included 180 foreign dignitaries from 30 countries including Taiwan, Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, Japan, Mexico, Nepal and Bhutan.
In Nov 2024, Asian Buddhist Summit was held in Delhi. These events emphasised India’s Buddhist Legacy, subtly challenging Chinese attempts to usurp and sinicize Buddhism.
Since 2020, the Chief Minister of Arunachal Pradesh Pema Khandu has insisted that the state shares its border with Tibet rather than China, calling it the Indo-Tibet border rejecting Chinese territorial assertions.
Instances where India Exercised Restraint
There have also been instances when India has exercised restraint to avoid rupture of relations beyond a point, especially when there are challenges from multiple diplomatic arena.
In 2018, India advised its officials to stay away from the 60th anniversary of the Dalai Lama exile in India following the Doklam stand off and cooling off and preceding the visit of PM Modi to China. The event was eventually shifted to Dharamshala from Delhi.
India does not allow Tibetan political protests near Chinese diplomatic missions preventing widespread politicisation of the Tibet issue.
It is thus evident that the instant conciliatory statement of the Ministry of External Affairs could not be seen in isolation without a historical context, global politico-diplomatic and economic landscape and vexed international relations. In July 25, China has also downplayed the remarks of Deputy Chief of Indian Army, about Chinese support to Pakistan during Operation Sindoor saying, “India-China relationship is in a critical moment of improvement and development”.
It would be naive to join issues with multiple countries at the same time in a turbulent regional and contested neighbourhood. It may be pertinent to recall that in May 1998, the then defence minister Mr George Fernades described China as “enemy number one” given its support for Pakistan and military expansion in Tibet. More recently in July 2017, Mrs Sushma Swaraj, the then Foreign Minister had declared that “For India to adhere to One China, China must adhere to One India”, an assertion repeated by her successor Mr Jaishankar in 2020 demanding reciprocity in core national interests. In a gradual and deliberate departure, India has jettisoned the One China Policy (reference to Tibet and Taiwan) in its official statements since 2010.
China’s Stand with Regard to Buddhist and Tibetan Issues
On its part, China has undertaken a sustained and vigorous campaign to reshape “Tibetan Buddhism to Buddhism with Chinese Characteristics” as part of its broad strategy to sinicize religion/ to bring religious beliefs and practices under state control and align them with ‘Socialism with Chinese Characteristics’. This has involved a combination of repression, compulsory re-education, co-optation, surveillance and ideological indoctrination. Commencing with abduction and detention of widely accepted 11th Panchen Lama; Gedhun Choekyi Nyima since May 1995 and nomination of its own Panchen Lama, it has instituted a number of measures to supress Tibetan religious succession.
Monasteries are under state surveillance (Buddhist Association of China) with officials and work teams embedded in major monasteries to monitor and steer activities; curtailing traditional monastic autonomy and subjugation of religious beliefs. It is mandatory for monasteries to have ‘Nine Haves’ including photographs of communist party leaders. New Administrative Regulation 2024 codifies monasteries support to CCP leadership.
Monks are forced to undergo patriotic education swearing loyalty to the communist party and denouncing the Dalai Lama.
Possession of Dalai Lama’s photos are considered sacrilege and celebrating his birthday is often met with crackdowns. Tibetan prayer flags and religious symbols are dismantled and they are forced to display CCP flags.
Grooming and installing pro-Beijing reincarnate Lamas(Tulkus). These Lamas must be vetted through Qing era system of Golden Urn adopted in late Eighteenth century (only used for selection of 9th and 11th Dalai Lama under pressure from Qing emperor); which must be adopted for selection of Fifteenth Dalai Lama. Incidentally the concept was enforced on the Tibetan Buddhists by the Manchus who provided military support to Tibetans against the Gurkhas in 1791/92.
Tibetan Buddhist texts are being translated and edited in Mandarin(Mandarization) to align with communist ideology where loyalty to Dalai Lama is denounced.
Tibetans face digital monitoring through facial recognition, AI surveillance, internet censorship and close monitoring of religious gatherings. Pilgrimage especially to India and Nepal are restricted. The United Front Works Department plays a leading role in integrating religion into party structures to align with Xi Jinping Thought.
Large religious centres like Larung Gar (Sinchuan) and Yarchen Gar (Tibet) were destroyed between 2014 and 2019 displacing thousands of monks and nuns. There has been large scale influx of Han Chinese into Tibetan Autonomous Region resulting in demographic inversion.
The Larger India Stand, as Birthplace of Lord Buddha and present India-China relationship
It is possible to leverage the Tibetan issue citing gross human right violations, religious prosecution and internal repression as it happens in Xinjiang. India is the spiritual birth place of Buddhism and can position itself as the protector of authentic Buddhist heritage. However, the current efforts to reset relationship with China, which indeed is expedient for both sides; is a manifestation of global diplomatic and trade/security challenges to include ongoing trade deal with US, indispensable near-term trade dependency on China constrained by rare earth magnets and fertilizers, withdrawal of Foxconn Chinese engineers and attempts to foster regional groupings of China-Pakistan-Bangladesh and China-Pakistan-Afghanistan in an attempt to isolate India. Given the institutional support and world-wide recognition, the Dalai Lama card can be exploited by India at a time of its choosing without constraints of maintaining diplomatic consistency, a rarity in current geopolitical landscape.
The Dalai Lama seemingly opting for traditional reincarnation (not emanation which means transfer of his consciousness and knowledge into a selected young boy (or girl)), which often means a gap of 20 years or more before the new Dalai Lama is ready to lead his people. There is no immediate need to conflagrate the issue as nomination of the Fifteenth Dalai Lama may take decades (the Fourteenth Dalai Lama forecasting to live for another 30-40 years). Given the trajectory of Global reset in economic and military prowess, it could only be to India’s advantage to use the Dalai Lama card as a strategic tool in a balanced, calibrated, symbolic and multilateral environment rather than being confrontational or provocative which may result in unintended consequences.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Major General SC Mohanty, AVSM (Retd), was commissioned in June 1983. The officer commanded a Mechanised Infantry Battalion, a Mechanised Brigade and an Infantry Division (RAPID Strike) in the Western Sector. As a Brigade Major, he took active part in the Kargil Operations while located at Drass. As part of Military Operations Directorate, he headed the Information Warfare, Cyber and Electronic Warfare branches. Post retirement, he was the Security Advisor to Government of Arunachal Pradesh from July 2020 to May 2023.
