Bihar has given its verdict- a thumping win for the NDA with 202 out of 243 seats polled in the assembly election. Nitish Kumar stays in power, after 20-years of rule in the state. While Lalu Prasad Yadav’s Rashtriya Janta Dal failed to make inroads again in the state with only 25 seats, it is former poll strategist Prashant Kishore’s much hyped Jan Suraaj Party score of a grand 0 that is being touted as the single biggest loser in this election.
Astronomical expectations were set for a one-year-old-party, which is feeble time in politics in any geography, because of the man behind the political outfit- Prashant Kishor! Born in Rohtas village of Bihar, this man of humble beginnings went on to secure for himself an enviable job in the United Nations and then went on to become the most successful political strategist for the biggest leaders of India.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who in 2011 was Chief Minister of Gujarat, was one of the first to sign PK on as his political strategist. PK got cracking on formulating innovative marketing strategies for Modi’s next election win. His work for Modi is credited to have gotten him elected for the third time as Gujarat’s Chief Minister. In the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, it is Kishore who is said to have ideated Modi’s chaiwallah image and marketed it right into the psyche of every citizen.
After the super successful stint with Modi, PK was in demand from leaders across the nation. Bihar’s CM, Nitish Kumar got him on board in the run up to the 2015 Bihar Assembly elections. PK’s work helped him get elected for the third time as CM of the state. His Midas touch continued to reap gold for leaders including Arvind Kejriwal, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy, Mamata Banerjee and MK Stalin. (His dream run was only marred by the Congress party’s defeat in 2017 in Uttar Pradesh.)
Living amidst powerful men and women across India, PK’s own political ambitions begun to brew. In September 2018, he formally joined Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) Party wherein he was made national vice president of the party. But his bond with the party patriarch Nitish Kumar began to snap, when he openly criticised the party on various issues. Finally in 2020, over incongruous views over the CAA, Kishor quit the JD(U) and with an angry tweet addressed to Kumar, burnt his bridges with him forever.
In 2021, Kishor announced his retirement as political strategist. And only a year later, on 2nd May 2022- he announced an ambitious plan of launching his political party in Bihar and fighting the assembly election of 2025.
The kingmaker had decided to become king himself. The template for electoral victory was ready. All he had to do, was execute it well- or so he thought. The issues plaguing Bihar burn bright- poorest in per capita GDP, highest in illiteracy and mass migration of workforce. The first step, as he had strategized for all the parties before, was to engage personally with the people across the state. Prashant set out on an ambitious padyatra of 3500 kilometres, to introduce himself and draw the people who he wished to lead in the coming years.
In the two years of the padytara (from 2nd October 2022 to 2nd October 2024) Kishor spoke to lakhs of people, and then raised issues about education, migration and inflation in the state. He persuasively appealed to them to vote for these reasons over the traditional caste-based voting ritual of the state.
His social media handle did well to publicize his endeavours. The image of Kishor walking through heat and dust, rain and flood, besieged the Bihari making his living away from home. Donations from wealthy locals settled abroad and within India poured in. Kishor ploughed in more to drive his message and himself deeper into the Bihari voter’s psyche.
As elections drew to a close, the media began to cover Kishor’s endeavours extensively. His interviews were blockbusters- as he talked of unemployment, illiteracy, migration and even prohibition which he labelled a mere farce in the state. His idealistic politics was a refreshing change for the middle-class Bihari. His views on social media hit record numbers and scribes lined up to talk to him. In many an election rally, he was so severely mobbed that he was unable to reach the stage to address the gathering.
But despite the apparent popularity and clean politics he was serving to the Bihar electorate, reports on a weak result began to tumble out. He had undoubtedly struck a chord with the youth, but the trust deficit was apparent. He was too new in the fray to be believed and perhaps too outspoken for the common Bihari. In many rallies, he could be seen reprimanding the people for their choice of caste-based politics. His words, though plain, came as too reproachful for the common voter. After prolonged speculation on which constituency he would contest, Kishor announced that he would not stand for election at all. The reason of using the time to campaign for other candidates of his party didn’t cut much ice even with his loyalists!
Moreover, the prevalent peace in the state and the improved law and order situation from the time of the infamous ‘jungleraj’ that has scarred the ageing Bihari, deterred her from voting for an ‘unknown devil’. While Prashant repeatedly highlighted issues like migration and illiteracy, the absence of a real crisis bent the vote towards the incumbent. The final consolidation of the woman vote was done by the masterstroke of the BJP wherein over a period of two months, ten thousand rupees were credited to the accounts of about one crore women voters.
As the picture of the election outcome began to become clearer, PK’s confidence started to jitter. From outlandish prophecies of undoubtedly forming the government, quitting politics if JD(U) secured more than 25 seats, and Nitish Kumar not becoming the CM under any circumstance, he came down to saying that JSP would either get less than 10 or over 150 seats! The range of this statistic was suspect, especially coming from an ace poll strategist! Frustration of the fact that three years of blood and sweat may not turn into votes, began to surface- PK began to lambast journalists questioning his honest stance or his attacks on other candidates. Instead of himself answering questions- he advised scribes to ask tough questions to the powers that be!
On 14th November, Bihar gave its verdict! All of PK’s prophecies fell flat- Nitish Kumar’s JDU, with 85 seats, won more than three times what Kishor predicted. The BJP won 89. It is a landslide for the NDA and Nitish in all probability will continue as CM. Jan Suraaj has failed to secure a single seat. PK’s heartfelt appeals for changing the state of Bihar have received the most underwhelming response from the voter. On 98 % of seats, he has lost his deposit. The kingmaker’s winning template has drawn a stark blank.
PK’s defeat is amplified by his own prophecies and tall claims that reek of denial and arrogance. He wrote off a journalist who questioned him on his funding, made personal attacks on interviewers who asked him how he would penetrate a state entrenched in caste politics and walked away from interviews that did not pander to his line of thought. In a state where women were appeased with the 10000 rupees bank transfer till the last moment of voting, Kishor brazenly spoke of getting rid of prohibition in the very first of being elected! The woman voter has made her choice in Bihar.
But as the dust settles, the party’s achievements are also emerging from the blur. JSP did manage to secure 3.44% of the vote share- more than that of old established players like the BSP (1.62%), AIMIM (1.85%) and also the CPI and the CPI (M). It has stood third in the 129 seats out of the 238 seats it contested and garnered an average of 7000 votes per seat that it fought.
For PK, there are lessons in the defeat- lie low before reaching the ambit of power, appreciate the line between confidence and overconfidence, and most importantly, a year in politics is far too less to make any impact on the Indian voter. Having said that, Kishor’s courage to set such a political outfit in India’s most backward state needs to be lauded. His endeavour to venture into non caste politics needs to be celebrated. His talks on the burning issues of Bihar that need to be tackled must be echoed. The ballot has spoken but the conversation has just begun. His supporters hope that Kishor will continue his journey and work with the same grit for election 2030. There now will be enough time to build on the foundation he has laid and to make a mark in the minds of the masses. The lessons of defeat today may help in shaping a story of victory in the years to come. If those can be extracted from this incredible failure, Kishor’s plan for himself, and for what his followers believe for a prosperous and futuristic Bihar, may well see the light of day!
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ankita Kumar is Delhi based free lance writer. She comes from Bihar and remains in close touch with ground realities in the state.
