In effect, the Congress is at its worst in public perception. Nothing has changed, in reality. It is almost as if Rahul and Priyanka remain in the forefront as they have no other choice. “Others’ are not ready to sound deliverance for them. The BJP is at its crowning peak, even as the PM and RSS chief hoisted the saffron flag atop the completed Ram Mandir in Ayodhya – yet, another promise fulfilled to its electorate.
A battle won and a battle lost. For all the misgivings among the opposition, the eventual loss was worse than could be imagined. So much so, some in the opposition said they preferred the opinion polls to the final result; would have preferred to settle losses at that level, the rout was embarrassing. The moot point, whatever the misgivings around SIR, the continuous doubts the ECI, the losses scored that the victor was most deserving, just as much as the loser.
Now mind, nowhere the prevailing system is not being faulted by the losers – remember Donald Trump’s loss and how he refused to budge, with his supporters marching onto the White House. Globally, with a few exceptions like in the UK, everywhere elections are being called out – possibly, considering our size, both geographically and in numbers, India should still be among the flagbearers.
The BJP has been increasingly referred to as the most well-organized election fighting machinery in the world’s democracies The BJP, coming to their prowess, is always right up there. Unrelenting and comprehensive in its approach, meticulously considering the caste configurations, the right candidates, the over-arching pitch, its ability to monitor trends as to what is working, what is not, and ready to course correct. A well aligned cooperation between the party and its core think tank, the RSS, both aligned with a new resolve – no bickering when it comes to the hustings. Between the BJP and the RSS, they have a most formidable combination that only the voter can beat, not any opposition. Imagine all this with availability of funds, like no other! No wonder they win, one election after the other.
Somewhere, the advances made in infrastructure and investment climate in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh left the average Bihari ‘wanting’ similar development in their own state. A double engine government is proving a good alignment, especially among the northern states.
The ability to recognise ground realities, not just in dictating policy, but also formulating policy based on average voter sentiment has become the new hallmark of BJP successes. Therefore, Nitish was confirmed to be the leader of the ruling combine, the alliance fought with Nitish as its face, as its incumbent chief minister. Despite not much development over ten years, we saw the opposite of anti-incumbency – the ruling dispensation came back with an increased majority. In the belief, that the dominant partner, going ahead, would be the BJP, and development will come.
Clever politics with that last minute dole of rupees ten thousand to the woman voter. Yes, this could have been flagged by the EC, but then that is another matter. It must have helped BJP, but the win and loss was a combination of numerous factors. While the BJP did everything right, the opposition did everything wrong, and that is the crux of it.
Now, what about the opposition. The lead player is as compromised as any other politician – Tejasawi is the heir to Lalu Prasad Yadav, the fountainhead of established corruption – pitched against Nitish Kumar, a legend in his own rights, known for his impeccable clean record. The charges against Lalu, and through him to his son, stuck and the BJP ensured that their return was looked upon with fear and trepidation – gunda raj will return, is all they had to say, and the voter was not taking chances.
The alliance never worked, it was stitched as they had no other alternative, except to pool whatever they had. Imagine the once mighty Congress heading into an election with a Tejaswi Yadav as its chosen alliance leader? They had no tangible program to sell. It was a campaign marked by negativity and litany of complaints, with no promise to offer. With just 6 wins, it looked every bit that battered force, election after another. Rudderless, in spite of both siblings doing their best, which never looked as energised as the Amit Shah team. Amongst the younger leaders, compare Tejaswi Yadav and Rahul and Priyanka on one side, and the energy and confidence of Chirag Paswan, and you have the answers. Images matter and so do perceptions. Chirag appears the promising future of the state, given the rapport and support he enjoys of the prime minister.
Congress’ campaign of vote chori distracted the MGB and spread their resources thin. The Congress pulled the RJD down. A massive counter-consolidation of other backward castes and ECBs against the MY vote bank, as the latter feared a complete dominance of the former in administration and policing, contributed to the drubbing.
In Seemanchal, a Muslim-heavy region bordering Bihar, the NDA dominated the electoral outcome, suggesting that not including Owaisi’s party in the MGB was a tactical blunder. It also underlines the unease of the RJD’s leadership in passing on the baton of Muslim vote to someone like Owasi as that may dent their longer-term standing. The NDA managed to wrest multiple Muslim-dominated seats while Owasi too managed to get 6 seats, leaving very little for the MGB.
Women voters demonstrated steadfast faith in the leadership of Nitish Kumar, as someone who tried to improve women’s lives by reserving 50% seats in panchayats for women, distributing free cycles to school-going children, or banning liquor to safeguard women from rampant domestic abuse. Added to that was PM Modi’s appeal and charisma.
Overpromise by Tejaswi of giving a Sarkari job to each household actually backfired. His tall claims were met with derision and disbelief. No one believed he could deliver on this.
At the end of the day, the BJP emerged as the single biggest party, a first for them. The Congress was decimated. Lalu’s outfit fared its worst performance. The promise of Prashant Kishore will have to wait for another term, turning in with a nett zero in its bag. What role did he play, at who’s behest, and with what end in aim, only the future will tell. Right now, reports suggest he has gone back to the drawing board.
Till then, it is clear that yatras may be best to pass your time, the crowds who throng to them do not necessarily vote for you. Curiosity is one thing, belief and confidence is another. The voter is becoming conscious of the value of his vote. It is time, the political parties also realise that value.
A template for the opposition for the next round, perhaps, to deliberate upon:
Avoid internal discords, like disagreements over seat-sharing, leadership roles, and lack of a unified front. Alliance partners cannot be seen as contesting against each other (“friendly fights”), which serve only to dilute opposition votes.
The absence of a coherent, shared narrative and coordinated campaign strategy means that voters get mixed or confusing messaging.
Keep track of voters’ social alignments that shifted over time. Old strategies may not work. In Bihar, the opposition failed to reach out beyond their core base: many non-Yadav castes, women, EBCs/SCs, and youth did not identify with the narrow caste-based politics, limiting MGB’s appeal. Old promises, caste-based appeals — which failed to inspire a sense of change, especially among youth and women. the social base the opposition relied on earlier was no longer enough to secure victory in a changed socio-political landscape of Bihar.
Ensure a strong grassroots machinery — booth-level management, mobilisation of voters, local outreach — was weak or inactive in many constituencies, even in traditional strongholds.
In effect, the Congress is at its worst in public perception. Little has changed, in reality. It is almost as if Rahul and Priyanka remain in the forefront as they have no other choice. “Others’ are not ready to sound deliverance for them. The BJP is at its crowning peak, even as the PM and RSS chief hoisted the saffron flag atop the completed Ram Mandir in Ayodhya – yet, another promise fulfilled to its electorate.
