Are we getting over with the storm? This one week long with a thousand and more flights cancelled, a lakh of customers stranded at dozens of airports across the country. It was virtually mayhem of the worst kind, almost appeared similar to an outage caused by a technical glitch we hear of, in parts of Europe every six months. Or a blizzard that caught the aviation world unprepared. And herein, in the last expression, perhaps there is a tale, that rests. A blizzard that blew the entire Indian aviation crazy. Totally unaware, the less said the better, after all repetition too has its limits.
What went wrong, we are yet to be told. Simplistically speaking, the FDTL rules kicked in, caught Indigo off guard, in a position that they could not implement them. Did they not know while implementing them, their resources will snap, that they did not have them? Well, they did go ahead. Simply speaking again, they have been given 10% cut-back on routes and connections – could they not have done this voluntarily on their own, and suffered the consequences, thereof? This would have saved a lot of shame on them, on Indian aviation, on the travelling public.
The big low ebb in the growth of one of the fastest civil aviation growth areas in the world. Yes, the growth is there, there can be no doubt about it. But what about our ability to manage this growth. Ironically, in this moment a number of questions have been thrown in every quarter. And these can and must be addressed if the growth story is to continue without additional hiccups.
1. Role of the private sector. Is this about private versus public. Is the Minister lording over a private corporate company that is solely discharging a public utility? Does that rendering of public utility make it more than just a mere private sector entity. Is the government going to allow Airtel and Vodafone, or Maruti and Hyundai, or BSES and TATA Power to decide 100% on their own how they will engage with the end consumer. First, we have said, the government must not be in business. Does that mean we leave public utilities completely at the mercy of the private player? Should not the government step into the picture, as and when market forces demand a fair deal for the citizen? These are public services handled by the private sector, the two meet at some point. It is the efficiency and rules of the private sector, their investments, their profits, but with a government overseeing the rending of that service.
2. Professionalism in the system. Do we see it, and where? In the fast-developing eco-system around our development story, where are the aviation professionals? Honestly, they are not there, or not enough of them. Throughout the system. The growth has been faster than out ability to develop and harness professionals. Unlike in the hospitality business, where foreign players have entered in big numbers, brought their systems along with them, aviation has not witnessed such interventions. In fact, the opposite is true. There have been more failures, in percentage terms, one could say more than 80 to 90%, in numbers of corporates that have come and gone. Indian aviation growth story has been the graveyard of more than a dozen players, few of them heavyweights, some passion seekers, some seeking glamour in the game. Not serious, who burnt their fingers, leaving the industry a bad name. None of the big corporate names have looked at flying airplanes. Bombay Dyeing also met the same fate, with Go Air.
3. The role of the regulator. We have a soft regulator which bares its fangs only in moments of crisis. Like this time. Like sending a team of oversight managers to look at how the 6E staff manage the transition. It has been a rough ride, based as per reports on political patronage, of the government of the day. An airline once sold to a party that is close to the powers of the day, gets a different treatment from one that was in opposition. The regulator needs to be well staffed, well trained, with a leader in charge with proven credentials in this business. It is a fallacy to believe that the IAS cadre can handle just about every business. The opposite is true, especially in today’s changing world, where just about every business is getting specialised. Not for aviation alone, it is high time that services personnel are asked to choose from a variety of verticals, from the JS stage onwards, to specialise in aviation, tourism, high tech and so many others. Leave the administrative ministries to the admin type, the others are all specialised. Witness the slew of IAS cadres, one after the other, running Indian Airlines, like it was common turf they had studied at the Mussoorie Academy.
4. Monopoly and Duopoly – These are subject to market forces. Where does any private entity invest? Where they see a business opportunity, credible growth, stable policies, opportunity to make money and invest again. In our aviation business, the economies of scale, the inefficiencies, the continuous ambiguity in policy have always kept the big boys away. Should not one ask them, to begin with, what has kept them at bay? Except for Tatas, for whom aviation has been a personal passion, for the late JRD and Ratan; for them, coming back to own Air India, which now included Indian Airlines, it was ghar vapsi, back to basics, that they loved. Why else would they have ventured back into this messy business. The truth is also that the government desperately wanted to wash its hands off the business of running an airline, ready to take a haircut that left them close to bald, so long as there was somebody with deep pockets ready to burn a few holes in them, take it away and leave the government to rest in peace. So much is being made of the monopoly, looks like one of the TV anchors wants to start his own airline! Market forces decide how many players there would be in any industry. Yes, there can always be games behind the curtains, such happen in every industry, globally. Let us get mature about this. Nobody is there to do public service. They are in business, quoted on the stock market, have listed with a few lakhs of investors – their accountability is to them, too. If you want more players to join the fray, make the business more attractive. Which it is not, at present. It is a tough call. Staying steady in the turbulence in this business needs resilience, deep pockets, hard nose for business and steady flying, lest you fall off the radar before you know.
In the Indian system, just about everything is weighed against the investor. High ATF, among the highest in the world, at least among competing markets, a legacy of the last two or three decades when foreign airlines ran over Indian players, giving themselves an edge that was unthinkable to match for the Indian counterparts. Airport landing charges are another issue – we have often said the entire eco-system needs to be reviewed afresh so that every vertical gets its fair share of the booty. It remains mis-matched at best, requires an urgent investigation.
5. Regulations that make winners difficult. There has been little or no consistency in framing the road ahead. It has suited every government, every minister in charge, to do his own bidding.
Take the latest in FDTL rules. These, one gathers, are among the most lenient for pilots, as if India is the last bastion to ensure safety of the travelling public. Given the scale of an airline like Indigo, against an Akasa, the difference in costs would make it impossible for an airline to remain profitable. Did Indigo lobby for relaxation in the rules, and why not, they should have. If these do not make commercial sense, something in between had to be found out. Not a merciless charge to say listen, agree or disappear. Did Indigo stall implementing them? It would stand to reason that there must have been discussions. Some reprieves were granted, and ironically another now given till end February, 2026. In the last round, was this the case again? That a reprieve was expected and it did not come. And then, predictably, hell broke loose, as we all know?
Indigo as the shining star. Who should bear the charge for letting down the growth story? The best guess would be a collective indecisiveness, where all must be pronounced guilty. Is there any doubt that Indigo was indeed the sexy airline that hid under its branding of 6E? It has been that lone star in the aviation story in the last two decades, even as some passionate stories of persona such as Naresh Goyal floundered and went down. Interestingly, these passionate aviation founders were initially in the GSA business, of representing foreign airlines in India – Kapil Bhatia, presently chairman of InterGlobe and Naresh Goyal, chairman of erstwhile Jet Airways. They grew their passions from selling tickets. Moved onwards to owning airlines. There was another GSA – Bansi Nijhawan who represented British Airways, with his son Shyam taking on – the grandson Ankush is now the promoter of TBO, one of the largest B2B websites in travel. Then there is the other Bhatia Group, the Bird Group. They are in GSA business, managing Roseate Hotels and also airport handling services.
But the aviation eco-system remains hazy. Each vertical needs a second look, to ensure a level playing field for all. Airport charges are high, if you lower them, who pays for upgrades at airports. Are airfares too high? We are told they are? Who pays the airlines to run if fares have to come down. And when airlines run into red, who will finance them and why?
Coming back to Indigo, they remain the crown jewel. The airline that has done India proud. It has been among the fastest growing airline in the world, has aircraft orders with both Boeing and Airbus exceeding a thousand planes. Their monopoly is not going away any soon. In fact, with every passing month, it would get harder. And why would they simply leave the space for others to grow, at their expense. It is business for them; leaving aside this last monumental glitch (whatever be the cause), they have run their business most professionally, profitably, creditably.
Our growth story remains intact. If we lose it, we will have only ourselves to blame.
