“Those who matter have abdicated their global leadership role. Parochial gains, unending power dynamics and irresponsibility have won over statesmanship.”
While we were engaged in debating the 18% tariff, a very significant event was not taking place elsewhere in the world. I am referring to the renewal of the bilateral New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) between the US and Russia, which formally expired on 05 Feb 26.
The original START treaty came into force in 1991 and the amended New START in 2011. The treaty limited the number of deployed nukes besides many other misc. reciprocal restrictions.
It is understood that President Trump has not taken up President Putin’s offer to extend the treaty for another year. The suggestion from the Russians was to enable negotiations for reaching a new framework for restricting production and deployment of nuclear weapons.
While the Russian proposal appears to be logical, the US has not acceded to the request. The US has cited that if China is not part of a new restrictive arrangement, then arms reduction is a pointless exercise.
DiNanno, the top US Arms Control officer has stated, “As we stand here today, China’s entire nuclear arsenal has no limits, no transparency, no declaration and no controls.”
Hey, wait a minute please. With START having expired yesterday, that is exactly the case with the US. With no guardrails so to say, ‘the US nuclear arsenal also as of today has no limits, no transparency, no declaration and no controls’.
Same is the case with the Russians, as no new treaty is in place. So for the first time in almost 50 years, the world has to reckon with a ‘free for all’ situation in this respect. Well, that holds good at least for the ‘Haves’, the so-called nuclear club consisting of the US, Russia, China, UK and France.
For the rest of the mortal ‘Have-nots’, let us have a look at the three other nuclear treaties that are in vogue.
Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT)
Top of the list is the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty or NPT as it is popularly called. After prolonged negotiations of close to five years, the treaty entered into force in 1970 under the aegis of the United Nations with 191 member states.
The treaty has conveniently divided the world into two categories. The elite class being the Nuclear Weapon States (NWS). These are the well-known Famous Five, who tested a nuclear explosive device before 1967.
The rest are the Non-nuclear Weapon States (N-NWS) who have agreed to never acquire nuclear weapons. In return, the elites would be amenable to sharing the benefits of peaceful nuclear technology. Incidentally, there is an imperative in the agreement on the Weapon States to pursue nuclear disarmament with an ultimate aim of elimination of their nuclear arsenals.
There are five outlier countries that are non-signatories. These are India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel and South Sudan. Out of these, the first three are declared Nuclear weapon states, but have been refused entry into the exclusive NWS club.
India has long held the view that the treaty is fundamentally discriminatory. India’s position is that it needs nuclear weapons to safeguard against China. Pakistan says, it needs N-weapons since India has them.
Israel continues to maintain strategic ambiguity regarding its status, while the whole world knows about its nuclear capabilities. South Sudan, a non-nuclear nation having gained its independence in 2011, is yet to formally join the treaty. Iran, much in the news currently, is a signatory since the Shah days.
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)
This is a 1996 international agreement which bans all nuclear explosions of any kind. Despite being adopted thirty years back, the Ban is yet to come into force.
Although there are 187 signatories, the holdup is that nine key states are still to ratify the same. These are China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Isreal, Iran, Egypt, Russia and the United States. India is in fact a non-signatory, which is observing a voluntary moratorium on testing.
This treaty was very convenient for Nuclear weapon states who had done enough testing to be able to fine-tune their simulation models. However, non-ratification by the key players till date, indicates that there is still work to do towards destroying the earth more effectively. No wonder they are still keeping their options open.
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW)
This treaty came into force in Jan 2022 and has 74 state parties and 95 signatories. Frankly speaking, this is the most genuine and legally-binding effort towards getting the world rid of nuclear weapons. It prohibits development, testing, production, storage, transfer and use of nuclear weapons in any form.
But there is a small catch out there. None of the states possessing nuclear weapons including the Big Five have joined the treaty. Even those with nuclear deterrence relationships like NATO members, Australia. Japan, Belarus and South Korea are not part of it.
In practical terms, it is an impotent club of the ‘Have-Nots’. They have no power to make an iota of a difference. All that they can do is to reiterate a political statement of idealism-Nuclear weapons are not good for the survival of the human race.
Why is the US reluctant towards extending the New START?
As per Wiki estimates, the top state wise holding of holding of nuclear weapons is listed below:
| Country | Total Warheads | Deployed Warheads |
| United States | 3700 | 1770 |
| Russia | 4309 | 1718 |
| UK | 225 | 120 |
| France | 290 | 280 |
| China | 600 | 24 |
The US is insisting that China must become part of a new arms control agreement. The Russians although amenable to an extension are now wanting that if that be so, UK and France must also be brought into the ambit.
China says, I am far too behind to matter to you guys. I ain’t in your league, so leave me out of it. The reason is obvious. Their ultimate ambition is to dethrone the US from the perch of the world’s leading superpower. Having nuclear superiority or at least parity in a MAD world (mutually assured destruction) is a prerequisite towards that goal.
So, no way China is going to bind itself by a seemingly unfair arrangement rather prematurely in its quest. This is especially so since the US leverages with China on this count, are almost non-existent. Similarly, UK and France are probably wondering, how come people are suddenly remembering us now?
Frankly speaking, the ball is in the US court and they are not playing ball. Their actions are giving a green signal for a new arms race on a track, where they are already miles ahead. Analysts are wondering why?
One theory is that the US is recalculating its nuclear deterrence capability with respect to two major players, Russia and China. However, by pulling out of the deal, they are shutting down on the visibility they had into the Russian capabilities till now. That was true at least up to 2023, when Putin put an end to the mutual inspections in view of the Ukraine war.
The US is also actively working on a Star wars type, missile defence system which the Russians are extremely wary of. Simply stated, a passive defence system nullifies the offensive missile capability of the aggressor. This impacts the neutrality of nuclear deterrence and would not be acceptable. That however does not explain the developments.
It could also be hypothesised that the US is tacitly giving impetus to a new arms race. This would promote their defence industry thus revitalizing their economy. It also forces increased NATO expenditure and active EU participation as they are being woken up from their comfort zones.
Opacity creates mistrust which leads to greater insecurity which further lands up in excessive mitigation and disproportionate expenditure.The result is bound to be a downward spiral as the world has already seen during the Cold war. Does it matter if I am a winner in a field where everyone including me is an ultimate loser?
Is there something larger looming in the muddied waters? Or maybe we are all overthinking the idiosyncrasies of a singular individual?
The End of New START: A tragic development
In any case, the end of New START, the last effective and reasonably sane bilateral treaty, is a tragic development for the world. It totally negates the commitment made by the Big Five in the NPT to progressively move towards a nuclear weapon-free world. In fact, the escalation from now on will be totally opaque and unimpeded.
More than that, the Big Five also lose their moral authority to preach non-proliferation to the rest of the world. It will not be surprising if covert programs and non-compliances by the Have-nots, start rearing their ugly head in the days to come.
Iran is repeatedly indicating their keenness of a nuclear option for ensuring their national security. Ukraine is badly regretting handing over of their nukes to Russia. India continues to balance its economic growth with military spending and improving nuclear delivery capabilities.
Pakistan loves to brandish its nukes at the drop of a hat. Israel, the warrior state with no rest, dodging international restrictions by obvious denial. North Korea, practically a vassal state of China, not giving a damn to any treaty or arrangement. Many more on the sidelines with active civilian nuclear programs may not take long to take the plunge.
From Day 1, all efforts at nuclear non-proliferation have reeked of hypocrisy by those with greater power. Notwithstanding the duplicity, a state of sometimes nervous but successful balance has prevailed since the NPT came into force.
The deterrence efforts one can say, have not been too ineffective. Thankfully, the world has managed to keep away from an unfortunate catastrophe.
By not renewing the New START, humanity has taken a big step backwards. Those who matter have abdicated their global leadership role. Parochial gains, unending power dynamics and irresponsibility have won over statesmanship.
So, onwards we march towards a more reckless, vulnerable and fragile world!
Nervously shaking his head,
Horax (Casper)
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Air Vice Marshal Rajeev Hora is a Qualified Flying Instructor and an Experimental Test Pilot with over 3800 flying hours on multiple types of aircraft. His last appointment was as AOC HQ MAO at Mumbai. Previously held appointments are AOC Adv HQ WAC (Jaipur), Comdt Aircraft and Systems Testing Establishment (ASTE), Deputy Comdt AFA, AOC AFS Bidar and Deputy Technical Manager (Air) in the Acquisition Wing of MoD. He has earlier commanded a Jaguar squadron and was also the Team Leader of the IAF’s Hawk Aircraft Project Team in the UK.
